Grayscale Estimates Bitcoin (BTC) Miner Rewards at $35M a Day in Zcash Comparison

Grayscale's Mining Math

Grayscale's research arm has put hard numbers on the altcoin challenge to Bitcoin (BTC) mining economics, estimating that a Zcash (ZEC) machine earns roughly twice the daily reward of a BTC miner per rig — and four times as much per megawatt-hour of electricity. The analysis, published Sept. 11 by Grayscale research head Zach Pandl and laid out in the firm's research note, compares Bitmain's S23 Hydro rig on Bitcoin against the Z15 Pro on Zcash, using data through Sept. 9, an assumed power price of $0.05 per kilowatt-hour and zero transaction fees. Grayscale attributes ZEC's edge to a token price that briefly approached $1,000 — ZEC printed an intraday high of $979 on Sept. 3 and last traded at $1,123.25 — which has pulled hashpower toward its Equihash-based mining ecosystem: the firm estimates Zcash mining activity has grown more than 2.5x since the start of the year. Both networks run on proof of work, the model in which specialized hardware competes for block rewards, and Grayscale argues the hashpower influx strengthens ZEC's security in a potential virtuous cycle. Bitcoin's mining economy still dwarfs its rival at network scale, though: Grayscale pegs total daily BTC miner rewards at roughly $35 million, against about $2 million for Zcash.

$126,000 Year-End Scenario

On the price side, Bitcoin enters the seasonally weakest stretch of its calendar after gaining 25% in August. Long-run monthly return data shows September has averaged -2.93% — the worst month of the year, the stretch traders nickname “Rektember” — while October averages +20% (“Uptober”), November +41% and December +4%. Applying those historical averages mechanically produces a scenario in which BTC first pulls back to $75,000 this month, recovers $90,000 in October and reaches roughly $126,000 by November — matching the all-time high set in October 2025. BTC changed hands at $77,194 when the seasonal analysis was compiled, inside a 52-week range of $57,945.16 to $126,079.89. The projected year-end rebound leans on easing geopolitical tension, renewed inflows into spot ETF products and pro-crypto candidates performing well in the US midterms. Macro matters more than it used to as well: with institutions now dominant, rates and inflation prints move BTC harder than in past cycles. The caveat is stark — last year Bitcoin ran opposite to its seasonality, rising in September and then falling through October, November and December, a reminder that cycle tools such as the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart describe tendencies, not guarantees. As our Bitcoin coverage has noted, the asset rarely rises in a straight line even in bull markets.

Strategy's $60K Sales

Treasury behavior is adding a third stress signal. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, sold BTC in four tranches between June 30 and Aug. 10 at prices ranging from $59,256 to $64,262 — around $60,000 — then returned to the market on Aug. 31 and repurchased at $80,318. Company disclosures attribute the sales to operating costs and obligations tied to its preferred-share issuance, meaning the firm had to sell into a weak tape and buy back weeks later at a 30%-plus premium. The episode exposes the structural gap between owning Bitcoin outright and owning a strategic Bitcoin reserve vehicle: the equity carries payroll, refinancing and payout obligations the asset itself does not. Markets have noticed — over the past year Strategy stock fell 58%, Twenty One Capital dropped 71% and Strive slid 78%, while some treasuries now trade below the combined value of their BTC and are pivoting toward AI or merging into larger peers, as our Strategy investor guide tracks. Until Bitcoin's price recovers, that model stays squeezed — and the case for plain HODL-style direct exposure over leveraged equity proxies grows. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Binance.

Reading Bitcoin's Cycle Signals

Read together, the three threads describe a market being repriced at every layer. The Grayscale note — the primary document behind the mining story — states plainly that Bitcoin still distributes roughly $35 million in daily rewards against Zcash's $2 million, a reminder that per-rig profitability and network-scale economics are different questions. Seasonality frames September's weakness as a pattern, not a verdict. Strategy's filings show what forced selling costs. COINOTAG's reading: whether BTC defends the $75,000 seasonal floor decides if the year-end cycle thesis survives contact with the market.