Hayes Exits Entire HYPE Stack on AI IPO and Midterm Risks as Token Slides 10.5%

Hyperliquid News

Hyperliquid faced a notable confidence blow on Thursday after Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, disclosed he had liquidated his complete HYPE and NEAR positions. In a post on X, Hayes outlined a cluster of macro and political concerns behind the exit, framing the move as profit-taking ahead of what he expects to be a market peak before September. The disclosure rippled through the altcoin segment, with HYPE sliding more than 10% in the following session as traders digested the abrupt reversal from one of the most visible bulls on the asset. The token now trades near $65.35.

Among Hayes' reasons was a renewed surge in energy prices linked to ongoing conflict in the Middle East, paired with global inventory restocking dynamics that historically weigh on speculative risk assets. Rising oil and broader commodity costs tend to tighten financial conditions, drain discretionary risk capital, and steepen yield curves — all of which create a hostile macro backdrop for high-beta crypto names like Hyperliquid. The investor argued that this combination, layered over already tentative liquidity conditions, gave him sufficient cause to convert exposure into cash rather than ride out a structurally uncertain summer across the broader altcoin complex.

A second pillar of his thesis was the queue of mega-cap technology IPOs expected to price before early in the third quarter. Hayes flagged three large artificial intelligence listings — widely interpreted to include Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX — that are likely to absorb a meaningful share of retail and institutional risk budgets. He warned this liquidity drain would disproportionately hit assets with limited float and aggressive narrative pricing, particularly tokens with low circulating supply like HYPE and NEAR. The argument echoes a familiar capital-rotation playbook: when a wave of high-profile equity offerings hits the calendar, marginal speculative dollars typically migrate out of crypto and into the new issues.

Hayes also injected a political dimension into the call, predicting that President Donald Trump would pivot to an anti-AI stance in an attempt to secure Republican gains in the November 3 midterm elections. The reasoning carries direct implications for NEAR, which has actively positioned itself as an AI-native blockchain, but Hayes treated the broader regulatory mood as a headwind for technology-themed crypto narratives more generally. He suggested that any post-September market top would coincide with a tightening tone in Washington, marking the second half of the year as a window better suited to defensive positioning than fresh long exposure.

The pivot drew sharp criticism on X, where users pointed to recent appearances in which Hayes had publicly promoted HYPE as a long-term winner. In late May, he highlighted the project's tokenomics — no venture allocations, a team-only carve-out, and revenue routed to token holders — arguing the design had no peer at comparable scale for a derivatives exchange. Days before the sale, on June 1, he proposed a $100,000 charitable bet to Multicoin's Kyle Samani that HYPE would outperform every other top-ten asset by year-end. Critics framed the rapid reversal as a textbook promote-and-exit pattern, accusations Hayes has yet to formally address.

Even after exiting his two largest altcoin bets, Hayes signaled he was not retreating from the asset class entirely. He publicly endorsed Worldcoin (WLD), setting a $10 per-token target and tying the call to the anticipated SpaceX listing, which he expects to lift related risk sentiment. A promised follow-up essay, billed as a Reality Test, is scheduled to elaborate the broader framework next week. For now, the rotation reads less as outright bearishness on crypto and more as a tactical reshuffle: trimming names exposed to AI IPO crowding while holding selective long positions through specific listing-driven catalysts.

HYPE now changes hands near $65.35 after a 10.54% drawdown over the last 24 hours, with market capitalization at roughly $14.57 billion and turnover near $3.69 billion — elevated volume that confirms broad participation in the selloff. The lack of formal support and resistance markers leaves the $60 round number as a key psychological floor, while a reclaim of $70 would be required to neutralize the bearish flow. Trend remains sideways on higher timeframes, so a sustained close below $60 would invalidate the consolidation thesis and open the door to a deeper bear market leg.