Hyperliquid (HYPE) Valued at 15x-18x Forward Multiple by Grayscale

Hyperliquid News

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is being cast by Grayscale Research as an undervalued altcoin that can be analyzed like an equity, with Head of Research Zach Pandl applying an earnings-per-token model to the decentralized derivatives venue. The note, published Tuesday, assumes the protocol will generate about $1 billion of earnings in 2027, roughly 20% more than 2025, on the back of recovering crypto trading volumes and stablecoin reserve income tied to the platform's Aligned Quote Asset framework. Pandl projects circulating supply of 270 million to 310 million HYPE by end-2027, producing $3.25 to $3.75 of earnings per token. At recent trading levels, that implies a forward multiple of about 15x to 18x, which the firm argues is low relative to listed fintech peers. The thesis is not risk-free: slower network revenue or faster token supply expansion would compress the per-token earnings path. For readers tracking Hyperliquid, the core question is whether protocol cash flow can keep pace with a valuation that already prices in meaningful growth. That makes execution, not narrative, the variable that will determine whether the discount persists.

The valuation argument arrives while HYPE's distance from its all-time-high remains stretched. The token has declined more than 13% over the past month and traded about 29% below its mid-June peak, lagging larger crypto assets that preserved recent gains. On-chain data and fund-flow readings show two near-term pressures: large unstaking by early backers and redemption from listed investment products. Multicoin Capital and Paradigm removed roughly $291 million in staked HYPE last week, and wallet activity tracked afterward showed Multicoin receiving 1.29 million HYPE, worth about $71.1 million, before moving 101,340 HYPE, around $5.6 million, to Coinbase. Spot HYPE funds also recorded $8.6 million of outflows last week, marking a second consecutive weekly withdrawal and leaving product assets 18% below their July 10 high. The combination matters because staking exits can add liquid supply, while fund outflows reduce a marginal buyer that had helped absorb tokens. In a bear market phase for sentiment, long-term earnings models face a harder test when near-term positioning is still being reduced. That overhang does not disprove the cash-flow case, but it raises the execution bar.

A separate demand signal is emerging from Japanese public markets, where Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Market issuer Iole said it has started acquiring HYPE as a strategic digital asset. In a disclosure dated July 29, the company said it revised the intended use of funds raised through a July 16 warrant issuance from Bitcoin purchases to broader digital-asset purchases, then made an initial HYPE acquisition. Iole described the move as part of a Neo Crypto Bank strategy built around agentic commerce, where software agents execute payments and contracts autonomously and on-chain settlement becomes core financial infrastructure. The company bought 1,078 HYPE for 10.08 million yen at an average price of 9,352 yen, and plans further purchases through August, targeting 100 million yen in total exposure. Iole said it may stake the tokens and participate in governance, treating HYPE less as a short-term trade and more as operating infrastructure linked to an appchain thesis. It also claimed that, based on its own survey as of July 28, no listed company had previously disclosed HYPE acquisition and holding.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine frames HYPE at $54.98 inside a downtrend, with RSI at 35.62 and MACD bearish. The engine rates support near $54.01 at 76/100, driven by Keltner Lower and Fibo 0.618 confluence, while resistance at $57.61 scores 81/100 from Fibo 0.500 and Ichimoku Senkou B. Derivatives positioning is not aggressively bullish: with long/short data unavailable, funding is only 0.0031% and open interest stands at $1.44 billion, suggesting leverage is present but not euphoric. Fear and Greed at 29 adds caution. A reclaim of $57.61 would improve structure; losing $54.01 would open the $46.48 VWAP/EMA-200 zone and invalidate the near-term stabilization thesis.