Hyperliquid (HYPE) Loses Short-Term Trend Line After Pullback From $98 Peak

Short-Term Trend Line Gives Way

Hyperliquid (HYPE) has lost the moving average that defined its entire September rally, with the daily chart showing the token slipping beneath the short-term trend line after topping out near $98. The pullback carried HYPE down to $86.07, leaving price clinging to the very threshold that had guided the uptrend from August onward. For weeks that average acted as a guardrail: buyers stepped in at every dip, defending it during the early-September bounce from roughly $75 and again on the sharp push toward $98. In practice, that line served as the market's trend proxy — as long as price held it, dip-buyers had a defined, defendable reference for risk. That dynamic has now broken down. The latest daily candles closed below the line, and as the live HYPE chart shows, the market has so far failed to turn the level back into support. The breakdown carries extra weight because HYPE, the token of the Hyperliquid on-chain perpetuals exchange, had been one of the quarter's strongest performers in the altcoin market; a failed trend line on a name this heavily traded tends to pull algorithmic and discretionary flow in the same direction. Momentum readings reinforce the shift. The relative strength index has slid from the upper range to about 50 — a neutral print confirming fading bullish thrust, though not yet oversold conditions. Volume tells a similar story: the August breakout was backed by heavy participation, but turnover contracted steadily through September, and the latest selloff arrived on only moderate activity. Sellers have not panicked, yet the rally is clearly no longer attracting fresh demand. On the downside, the first meaningful zone sits near $81–$82, where two medium-term averages converge; deeper cushions lie at the orange average around $73 and the long-term line close to $61. To repair the technical picture, bulls must recapture the $88–$90 band — without it, the September lows near $75–$78 become the next logical test area.

Lower Highs Signal a Momentum Shift

The damage extends beyond a single indicator. After the local top near $98, HYPE printed a sequence of lower highs, and one extended red candle erased several days of gains in a single session — the kind of structural break that typically marks a handoff of momentum from buyers to sellers. A level that holds through an entire uptrend carries information, and when it fails, leveraged positioning tends to reprice quickly. That dynamic is amplified on the venue itself, where contract trading dominates flow and perpetuals books react faster than spot. Execution discipline matters accordingly: with the level contested, tight slippage control and predefined order types can determine whether a defended bid fills near $86 or chases the market lower. The bigger picture has not fully broken, however. Longer-term moving averages remain rising and stacked in bullish order, which keeps the primary trend structurally supported for now. Demand has also continued building through institutional channels — part of our ongoing Hyperliquid coverage: Grayscale-led HYPE spot ETFs absorbed $9.25 million in inflows for the Sept. 21–25 week, per our desk's tracking, while Hyperliquid Strategies added 494,200 HYPE worth roughly $45.8 million in a separate treasury purchase. Those flows have not yet translated into chart demand, but they frame this pullback as consolidation within an accumulation phase rather than outright distribution. Notably, the selloff unfolded without panic-volume expansion, which historically leaves room for faster stabilization once a level is reclaimed. Readers positioning around these zones can follow our guide on how to trade on Hyperliquid for entry structuring and risk sizing. The tactical read still stands, though: the level that defined the bull run is gone, and until price climbs back above it, the path of least resistance points toward the rising averages sitting lower on the chart.

COINOTAG Composite: $88.97 in Focus

A concrete supply-side trigger has now emerged behind the breakdown: a large vesting unlock covering early contributor and team allocations came due on Sept. 29, swelling circulating supply near the top and forming a short-term sell wall that capped price, even though some analysts judge actual claims may run below the theoretical maximum. The divergence with fundamentals is stark. Monthly active wallets on the decentralized perpetuals exchange surpassed 290,000, an all-time high, while cumulative protocol fee revenue crossed $1.24 billion, also a record, and 99% of protocol revenue continues flowing into HYPE buybacks and burns. Analysts now frame the $78–$80 zone as the line that decides the fourth quarter: losing it risks a retreat toward the low $70s, while a quick recovery of $85 on strong on-chain volume could set up a renewed push toward $100 by year-end.

(as of 23:21 UTC) COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine puts the nearest strong support at $90.9425, rated 86/100 on a Flip R→S plus Fibonacci 0.618 confluence, with $88.5517 (64/100, Fibo 0.382) and $89.7600 (61/100, Fibo 0.500) behind it. Above the current spot price of $91.28, the $92.7010 resistance scores 78/100 on a Fibonacci 0.786 and R3 overlap, followed by $93.7126 (64/100, Fibo 0.886) and $94.8800 (63/100, Fibo 1.000). Derivatives positioning is mildly long-skewed: perp funding prints +0.0033% against $2.23 billion in open interest, while COINOTAG's Fear & Greed Index at 71 still reads Greed. The bullish scenario requires a daily close above $92.7010 and then $94.8800; a drop below the $86.8649 shelf (59/100) would weaken the constructive case and open the $84.6400 floor (55/100). Trend classification: sideways.