Metaplanet CEO Says U.S. Treasury Triggered Bitcoin's 17% Rally

Bitcoin’s sharp recovery this week was triggered by the U.S. Treasury’s liquidity expansion, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich said, arguing the asset can no longer be viewed as separate from the traditional financial system. Gerovich pointed to a Treasury decision rather than a major crypto announcement as the catalyst, saying the old narrative that Bitcoin exists outside the financial system is no longer valid. He described the asset as increasingly influenced by liquidity and collateral conditions across broader markets. The remarks landed during what became a roughly 17% weekly advance for Bitcoin.

The Treasury move Gerovich highlighted was a decision to double the size of liquidity-support buybacks of long-dated coupon securities to $4 billion per operation from $2 billion, effective Sept. 9. The announcement helped fuel an advance of roughly $10,000 over the week, lifting Bitcoin above $77,000 for the first time since May and later to $79,500. Short sellers bore the brunt of the squeeze: market data shows about $3 billion in losses and 172,108 accounts liquidated within 24 hours, the largest such wipeout since 2021. The 10-year Treasury yield fell roughly 6 basis points to about 4.647% after the announcement.

Market participants are split on how directly the buyback expansion drove Bitcoin’s 17% weekly gain. The dollar softened after the Treasury announcement, pushing both BTC and gold into favor as alternative assets, but some investors describe the program as a temporary liquidity measure that leaves broader fiscal concerns unresolved. The Treasury frames the buybacks as a tool to support market functioning and cash management, not as a policy aimed at digital assets. The debate highlights how closely Bitcoin’s price reaction is now being read through dollar and bond-market liquidity, even though its supply schedule remains programmatically fixed.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio also entered the discussion on Bitcoin’s macro role, advising investors to hold gold and a small amount of Bitcoin as protection against a possible U.S. debt crisis. Dalio sees the Treasury’s buyback and rising long-end yields as consistent with his “big debt cycle” framework. He estimated federal revenue near $5.5 trillion against spending of roughly $7.5 trillion, with annual interest costs approaching $1 trillion, and projected a crisis could arrive in “three years, give or take two.” His recommendation is to reduce bond exposure, allocate 10-15% to gold and hold “a bit of bitcoin.” The comments came as Bitcoin moved from about $64,000 toward $80,000 following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s buyback announcement.

Data from Galaxy Research shows crypto-collateralized lending contracted in the second quarter of 2026 in a more orderly fashion than previous downturns. Total outstanding borrowing fell 16.78% quarter-over-quarter to $56.16 billion, with DeFi loans down 27.61% to $20.43 billion and CeFi loans down 9.62% to $22.98 billion. Futures open interest slipped 3.08% to $103.2 billion; Bitcoin open interest declined 6.24% to $45.04 billion while Ethereum open interest tumbled 26.31% to $21.99 billion. Researchers contrasted the step-down with the 2022 bear market, when lending collapsed more than 55% in a single quarter, and attributed the trend to voluntary risk reduction rather than forced liquidations. Corporate treasury debt also fell after Strategy repurchased $1.5 billion of debt in May.

Bitcoin’s scarcity relative to gold also drew fresh attention after the 2024 halving reduced annual new supply to about 164,000 BTC, lifting the asset’s stock-to-flow ratio to roughly 120 — more than double gold’s near-60 estimate based on current stock and mine production data. Bitcoin’s supply response is protocol-enforced: higher prices cannot prompt miners to produce more, unlike gold, where mining investment and recycling can expand output. If the 2028 halving cuts block rewards to 1.5625 BTC, the ratio could climb toward 200. Analysts caution, however, that scarcity alone does not determine future all-time highs, since demand, liquidity and investor positioning also drive price.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine currently places Bitcoin’s strongest resistance at $78,568.57, rated 74/100 on a confluence of flip S→R, HVN, LVN and Fibo 0.886 levels. Immediate support sits at $76,557.50, rated 65/100 from Fibo 0.786, Pivot Point and MACD Cross signals, with spot at $76,985. RSI at 81.01 points to an overbought setup despite a bullish MACD and uptrend. Derivatives data show funding at 0.0058%, open interest of $14.67 billion and a long/short account ratio of 1.11, while the Fear & Greed Index reads 71/100 (Greed). A break above the $78,568.57 resistance opens a path toward $80,844.90; losing $76,557.50 would shift risk toward $72,607.54 and invalidate the near-term bullish thesis.