Morgan Stanley Reiterates $300 Price Target on SpaceX (SPCX) Stock

A Valuation Split: $127 a Share

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reaffirmed his buy rating and $300 price target on SpaceX (SPCX) in a research note published on Monday, a level that sits 89% above the shares' $158.96 close on Friday. The note's core argument circulated in a market post on X under the desk's own wording: SpaceX is “cheap and getting cheaper”, and trades roughly 40% below mega-cap AI peers once its growth profile is considered. SpaceX listed in June in the largest public offering on record, priced at $135 a share, and four months later the stock trades about 23% above that debut price.

@DeItaone · X post

A market post on X.

View on X

His thesis rests on a single division of the valuation. He values the rockets and Starlink, the satellite internet service, at $127 per share. That leaves roughly $32 a share for the AI business, which spans the Grok chatbot and the computing capacity SpaceX rents out to outside customers. Across approximately 13.2 billion shares outstanding, the implied AI valuation lands near $420 billion. Jonas contends that number is far too low. Recent short-term computing deals negotiated by SpaceX paid between $30 and $50 per watt of capacity, he wrote, while analyst models assume $17.60 per watt. The gap is the crux of the call: on his arithmetic, buyers of the stock today are paying almost entirely for rockets and satellite internet, and very little for the AI arm that drives most of the debate around the company. The $300 target implies a near doubling from Friday's close, and it arrives without fresh earnings to lean on: SpaceX reports third-quarter results only in late October. Until then, Jonas's number stands as an argument about what the computing business is worth, not a forecast anchored to booked revenue.

Why 40 Clients Kept Hands Down

The demand test behind the note is striking. Last week, Jonas asked a room of 40 of the firm's clients how many owned the shares, and not a single hand went up, he said. That admission frames the problem the research set out to address: a company valued for its AI story, with essentially no participation in the room he surveyed. Two objections dominate, and Jonas says both are already priced in. The first is whether Grok can keep pace with rival AI models as the competitive field widens. The second is whether Starlink can secure spectrum, the radio airwaves its direct-to-mobile service depends on, against competing claims. Neither risk, in his view, justifies the discount at which the shares trade.

Supply has weighed as heavily as sentiment. On September 24, roughly 328 million shares became free to sell when the post-IPO lockup expired, four months after the debut. President Gwynne Shotwell sold $52.5 million in shares. The AI unit itself remains loss-making: it lost $1.26 billion last quarter while consuming 86% of SpaceX's capital spending. Sell-side opinion is divided: the lowest published target among tracked analysts stands at $142, and the consensus average across 33 analysts is $235.10, well short of $300. Jonas still points to a near-term catalyst. Starship, the company's reusable heavy-lift vehicle, recently completed a successful orbital flight, and Flight 15 is due in late October or early November. If SpaceX catches the returning ship, he wrote, the recovery would rank as the stock's biggest boost since the IPO. He lists new Grok releases and additional computing contracts as secondary supports. His stated downside is symmetric: a slide to $100 within a year would require an AI slowdown, a severe Starship setback, or dilution, not a single bad quarter.

SPCX Presses 96-Score Resistance

COINOTAG data shows the stock changing hands at $167.37, up 5.19% over the past 24 hours, pressing on the strongest level in our support and resistance composite: $167.27, which scores 96/100 where the R2 pivot meets overbought RSI and Stochastic readings. The nearest support, $161.41, rates 83/100 as the Value Area High flips from resistance into support alongside the 0.786 Fibonacci level. The daily RSI sits at 70.8 with a bullish MACD inside an uptrend, and the stock perpetual market carries roughly $363.8 million in open interest. A daily close above $167.27 would confirm the analyst-driven advance; a rejection back toward $161.41 would invalidate it.