Solana (SOL) Closes In on First 'Mini Golden Cross' Since 2025 at $77

Solana News

Solana (SOL) is closing in on a “mini golden cross,” a short-term bullish crossover that would be its first since 2025, as its key moving averages converge between $75 and $76. The label is informal; unlike a standard golden cross, which tracks a 50-day average crossing above a 200-day average, this variant uses shorter-period averages and is more sensitive to short-term volatility. The faster average has risen to roughly $75.46 and the slower average sits near $76.32, narrowing the gap that widened during the token’s June slide to $60. Solana, one of the largest altcoins by market value, has since built a base near $70–$75 instead of revisiting those lows. With the live spot price at $77.26, the crossover is now the focal point for traders seeking confirmation that the recovery is durable. The daily relative strength index has climbed to roughly 57, above the neutral 50 mark but not yet overbought, leaving room for additional upside if buyers protect the setup. Both discretionary traders and automated AI trading bot strategies are watching the crossover. Derivatives positioning is similarly tilted bullish: the SOL/USDT long/short ratio on Binance stands near 2.10, while top traders on that venue show a more aggressive 2.38. The first notable barrier sits just overhead at $78.07, where SOL meets an intermediate moving average. A sustained break and hold above $78–$80 would strengthen the formation and could open a path toward the long-term moving average near $89. The broader trend remains fragile, however; SOL is still roughly 38% lower year-to-date, and the long-term average near $89 is still declining. If the crossover fails and price loses $75, focus would return to $70 and possibly $65. For now, the developing cross is best treated as an early recovery signal rather than evidence of a new bull trend.

Despite the bullish chart pattern, the setup is not confirmed until Solana closes above $78.07 and holds the $78–$80 range. Several technical observers caution that moving-average crosses are lagging indicators, so the signal carries less weight while price remains below resistance. Market observers add that the mini golden cross carries less conviction than a full golden cross because shorter-term averages are prone to whipsaws. Some market participants argue that until the $78–$80 zone is reclaimed, the pattern remains unfinished, with resistance above price giving sellers the immediate edge. Recent market data underscored how quickly the picture can shift: spot quotes across aggregators were seen as low as $72.89–$74.08 earlier in the session, before the live market moved to $77.26. Because moving averages are calculated from past prices, a drop below the $78.07 barrier could quickly weaken the crossover narrative as well. Conflicting signals remain visible elsewhere. The daily chart still carries a prior death cross, a bear-market signal, even as recent Solana ETF flows showed a modest $8.8 million inflow on Aug. 11. That inflow was part of the bullish evidence, but a single day’s flow does not confirm a trend reversal. Prediction markets have priced a wide range of outcomes, with a scenario near $40 assigned roughly 69% probability and a move toward $160 at 31%; such quotes reflect positioning rather than a definitive forecast. Long positioning is dominant, but that concentration cuts both ways. Binance’s top-trader long/short ratio of 2.38 means a fast reversal could trigger cascading liquidations, amplifying volatility around resistance. The price remains far from its all-time-high levels, and the mini golden cross is therefore a short-term recovery signal, not a structural trend change.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $79.2578 resistance at 73/100, driven by the confluence of the ATR upper band, R2 pivot and the 0.500 Fibonacci retracement. The strongest support sits at $75.2622 with a composite score of 78/100, anchored by the swing low, 0.382 Fibonacci level and Ichimoku Kijun. Derivatives positioning adds a caution flag: funding is positive at 0.0043%, but open interest of roughly $1.60 billion and a long/short account ratio of 2.31 point to crowded longs that could unwind abruptly. The Fear & Greed Index at 46/100 reinforces the cautious tone. A bullish scenario needs a daily close above $79.26, while a break below $75.26 would invalidate the thesis and open the door to $73.56.