SpaceX (SPCXB) Slides Below Its $135 IPO Price After $200 Peak

SPCXB News

SpaceX (SPCXB) shares fell beneath their $135 initial public offering price this week, unwinding the momentum that had carried the stock above $200 in the weeks after its record Nasdaq debut. The company priced at $135 per share in June, raising roughly $75 billion in what ranks as the largest IPO ever recorded. From that summit the stock has now shed close to a third of its value, and the retreat has dragged it back to the very floor set at listing. Our reading of the tape shows the decline accelerating as sellers pressed into a level many buyers had treated as untouchable, marking a sharp reversal from the post-listing euphoria.

Elon Musk dismissed the pullback and repeated a claim that SpaceX will one day be worth more than Earth itself. Responding to entrepreneur Peter Diamandis on X, Musk called the forecast obviously true if the company reaches its goals. Diamandis framed the argument by estimating that all owned material wealth on Earth totals about $600 trillion, while space holds nearly limitless quantities of the same resources. The math rests entirely on that comparison and on milestones Musk never specified. He had floated the same outvalue-Earth thesis earlier this month, before the stock ever tested its listing price, so the timing sharpened scrutiny rather than easing it.

The drop coincided with an aggressive buildup of bearish positioning, a dynamic that has amplified every downward leg. Short interest reportedly climbed to about 185 million shares, equal to roughly 29% of the tradable float. A short position, borrowed stock sold in a bet the price falls, becomes self-reinforcing when a name slides through a widely watched level, and SpaceX broke its IPO floor squarely into that setup. The scale of the wager is unusual for such a young listing and helps explain why the selling has not paused for the kind of technical bounce that often follows a fall of this magnitude.

Three weeks earlier that short position stood near just 40 million shares, meaning bearish bets more than quadrupled in a matter of weeks. The current figure represents close to $25 billion in wagers against the company, one of the heaviest concentrations of downside exposure seen in a recent debut. On paper the trade has already paid: short sellers are sitting on an estimated $8.7 billion in unrealized profit as the stock retraced from above $200 back to $135. That performance, more than any single headline, has kept fresh sellers arriving even as the valuation debate grows louder around the name.

Musk answered the pile-on directly, warning that the survival probability of firms holding a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low. He offered no evidence for the assertion, and the stock kept sliding regardless of the threat. The exchange echoed past confrontations between the executive and bearish traders, though this time the numbers behind the short book are far larger. For now the market has treated the warning as rhetoric rather than a catalyst, leaving the price to be decided by flows rather than by posts, with the IPO level acting as the immediate battleground between the two camps.

The listing also rippled into crypto, reviving interest in tokens associated with Musk. The historic IPO helped spark a rally in Dogecoin and other Musk-linked assets, a reminder of how tightly speculative corners of the market still track his ventures. Enthusiasm in that altcoin cohort has cooled alongside the stock, mirroring the broader bear market mood that has replaced the excitement of the debut. The pattern underscores a familiar feedback loop: narrative-driven flows chase the same figure across both equities and tokens, then retreat together once the underlying story loses its earlier shine and momentum fades.

Turning to our own signals, COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $122.17 support at 72/100, its strongest reading, built on the confluence of the S1 pivot, the ATR lower band and the Donchian lower channel. Overhead, the engine scores $133.86 resistance at 50/100, drawn from the R2 pivot and ATR upper band. With SPCXB near $126.29, an RSI of 30.29 flags oversold conditions while the MACD stays bearish and the trend reads sideways. A broad bear market backdrop, with a Fear and Greed reading of 25 (Extreme Fear), favors the bulls only above $133.86; losing $122.17 would invalidate the near-term recovery thesis.