Stablecoin Volumes Exploding: Limited Market Value
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The rapid rise in stablecoin volumes has become one of the crypto market's most notable trends, while JPMorgan analysts state that this growth will not reflect on the total market value at the same pace. The team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou identifies the sharp increase in stablecoin velocity over the past year as the main reason; the same amount of stablecoin now carries much more transaction volume. Analysts emphasize that widespread adoption in payment systems will boost efficiency and further elevate velocity. This dynamic will limit the expansion of the stablecoin universe even if usage multiplies.
Stablecoin Velocity Metric: Efficiency Indicator
Stablecoin velocity measures the transaction volume performed by one unit of stablecoin in a unit of time. The formula is simple: Velocity = Total Transaction Volume / Average Circulating Supply. Over the past year, this metric has risen by more than 50%, indicating that stablecoins are being used more efficiently. This is similar to M2 money supply velocity in traditional finance; as efficiency increases, the need for new supply decreases. Tracking this trend with tools like H detailed analysis is critical for understanding market dynamics.
JPMorgan Forecasts: Marginal Growth Expectation
Last year, the stablecoin market value expanded by approximately 100 billion dollars, and including yield-bearing types, the total size exceeded 300 billion dollars. This growth occurred faster than the overall crypto market value and revealed that stablecoins are taking on roles beyond trading or collateral. Analysts predict that the rise in velocity will limit market value to marginal expansion; it signals a maturation phase.
Impact of the GENIUS Act on Stablecoin Volume
On-chain transaction volume is advancing at an annual pace of 17.2 trillion dollars based on year-to-date data. Following the adoption of the GENIUS Act in the US, the surge in volume accelerated the adoption of stablecoins as a payment tool. While consumer-to-consumer payments still dominate, consumer-to-business and merchant payments are growing faster; venture capital firms like a16z crypto and Asia-based players confirm this trend. The law's regulatory clarity has triggered institutional entry.
Reflections of Stablecoin Efficiency on H
Stablecoin trends are supporting volume increases in instruments like H futures. H is at the $0.19 level with a 7.77% rise in 24 hours; RSI at 75.11 in overbought territory, uptrend dominant but Supertrend giving bearish signal. EMA 20: $0.1415 support is strong.
| Level | Price | Score | Distance | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | $0.1853 | 74/100 (⭐ Strong) | -4.46% | Fibo 0.618, Pivot, MACD |
| S2 | $0.1647 | 67/100 (⭐ Strong) | -15.08% | Fibo 0.500, VWAP, Ichimoku |
| R1 | $0.2186 | 69/100 (⭐ Strong) | +12.72% | HVN 3, R2, Fibo 0.786 |
| R2 | $0.2040 | 58/100 (Medium) | +5.19% | R1, Donchian, ATR |
Maturation in Payment Infrastructure and Future Expectations
The rise in stablecoin velocity signals that the sector is gaining efficiency in payment infrastructure. This reflects that the crypto ecosystem has entered a maturation phase. Analysts' previous cautious forecasts are consistent in this context; even if velocity increases 2-3 times, market value may remain limited to 20-30%. Experts predict that layer-2 solutions will reinforce this efficiency.