Standard Chartered Says Bitcoin Could Retest $126K by Year-End

Standard Chartered's global head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, said in a Friday note that Bitcoin (BTC) could move toward its $126,000 all-time high before the end of the year — a recovery he suggested could accelerate after Oct. 6 — while conceding that the bank's $100,000 year-end target now risks coming in too low. Kendrick attributed the latest leg of the rally largely to short liquidations, which occur when rising prices force leveraged bearish traders to close positions by buying back the asset, adding further momentum, and pointed to recovering inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds as a second source of demand. With open interest still subdued across the market, he argued, there is room for additional investors to rebuild positions as prices extend higher, reducing the risk of an immediate reversal. For the first time this year, Kendrick wrote, the $100,000 forecast now carries a risk of being exceeded. The stance marks a clear shift from Standard Chartered's February outlook, when the bank cut its year-end Bitcoin target to $100,000 from $150,000 and lowered its forecast for Ether, the leading altcoin by market capitalization, to $4,000 from $7,500, with Ether projected to fall as low as $1,400. At that point, Kendrick expected Bitcoin to drop toward $50,000 before the market turned higher again; the deepest drawdown instead took the cryptocurrency toward the upper-$50,000 range, with buyers returning before that scenario played out. Bitcoin was trading near $76,844 at the time of the note, roughly 24 percent higher over the preceding week, according to market data. Other industry observers have struck a similar tone: Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten has suggested Bitcoin could bottom in October, while 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said an August close above $63,000 would confirm a bear-market bottom.

Kendrick's note singled out Oct. 6 as the point after which Bitcoin's recovery could accelerate, a date that coincides with the anniversary of the cryptocurrency's 2025 market peak and the start of the extended decline that ran into 2026. Standard Chartered has stopped short of formally swapping its $100,000 year-end forecast for a $126,000 target; the note frames the record as a level BTC may revisit if the current advance gathers momentum, while acknowledging that the bank's official call could prove conservative. At the time of the report, Bitcoin sat roughly 39 percent below the $100,000 forecast and about 64 percent below the record. The assessment is notably stronger than the bank's stance during the June selloff: Standard Chartered retained its target even after BTC fell more than 15 percent in a week and briefly traded near $61,000, and nine days later held the same forecast after Bitcoin touched $59,000 and recovered to roughly $63,500. The bank reaffirmed the call again on July 10. Market data shows the recovery has been accompanied by firmer ETF demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $221.7 million in net inflows on July 2, ending a 10-day negative streak, and by July 21 inflows had extended to five consecutive sessions as Bitcoin climbed back above $65,000. The advance was not without friction — on July 16, Bitcoin briefly reached about $65,470 before failing to hold above $65,000 amid whale selling and profit-taking, and a July 21 push to roughly $66,965 stalled near $67,000. Those levels now sit more than $10,000 below the latest market price, with BTC up more than $17,000 from its June low. Kendrick also flagged low open interest as a structural tailwind: with fewer leveraged positions active, traders can rebuild exposure without immediately recreating the crowded conditions that often precede liquidation cascades.

Galaxy Research analysts, however, caution that the current rally may still be premature, pointing to a historically reliable marker: a weekly close above the 50-week moving average, currently at $82,470. Across 13 completed bear markets since 2011, only two false signals occurred when that level was decisively broken, both during the 2021–2022 double top. The firm found that out of 106 breakouts above the 50-day MA, 43 turned out to be false, and Bitcoin sometimes traded above that line for weeks before reversing. After past cycle bottoms, it took between 130 and 284 days to close a week above the 50-week MA, by which point the price had already risen 63%–80% (and 237% in 2011). With BTC currently in the $73,000–$77,500 range, a sustained close above $82,000 remains the key confirmation that the crypto winter has ended.

Standard Chartered's year-end calls have a mixed track record that the current $100,000 forecast now risks extending, rather than breaking. The bank's 2025 year-end projection began at $200,000, was halved to $100,000 in December, and Bitcoin ultimately closed the year at $87,703 — roughly 12.5% below even the revised target, marking the third consecutive year the bank's official year-end figure overshot the actual closing price. The current 2026 year-end target of $100,000 has itself gone through two downward revisions, from an initial $300,000 to $150,000 and finally to $100,000. Kendrick's latest note, however, suggests that after Oct. 6 the recovery may accelerate enough that this twice-cut forecast also proves stale on the low side.

(as of 18:30 UTC) Taken together, the two updates trace a single arc: a bank forecast that survived the worst of the bear market is now being challenged from the upside. The load-bearing primary source is the Friday research note itself, which formally retains the $100,000 year-end target while conceding the number may prove too low. In our view, the composition of the rally matters as much as its size — the first leg was driven by short liquidations, so durability now depends on whether spot Bitcoin ETF inflows broaden demand beyond forced covering. Oct. 6, tied to the 2025 peak, gives the market a concrete date to watch; if institutional flows keep absorbing supply, the $126,000 retest scenario moves closer to a base case.