Will XRP Rise or Fall? January 31, 2026 Scenario Analysis

XRP is positioned at a critical juncture at the $1.60 level. The price, squeezed in the $1.50-$1.75 range with a %8.49 drop in the last 24 hours, carries recovery potential with oversold RSI (25.88), while bearing the risk of new lows with the downtrend and bearish MACD signals. Both scenarios can occur depending on market volume and Bitcoin movements.

Current Market Situation

XRP is trading in a strong downtrend at $1.60. The 24-hour change is %-8.49, while trading volume remained at $4.12 billion. The price is stuck in the narrow $1.50-$1.75 band and trading below the short-term EMA20 ($1.90). RSI at 25.88 is in oversold territory, but MACD shows a negative histogram and Supertrend gives a bear signal, with resistance concentrated at $1.94.

In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 12 strong levels were identified across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 1 support/3 resistances on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, and 2S/4R balance on 1W. Critical support at $1.5028 (score 74/100), resistances at $1.6390 (64/100), $1.7347 (60/100), and $1.9595 (71/100). This structure equalizes the odds of both bounce and breakdown – traders should monitor volume and candle closes.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How This Scenario Unfolds?

The bullish scenario is triggered by holding the $1.5028 support and forming positive divergence on RSI. Breaking the $1.6390 resistance with a high-volume candle (e.g., bullish engulfing) provides momentum toward EMA20 ($1.90). Supertrend turning green and MACD histogram crossing above the zero line serve as confirmation signals. Weekly timeframe 1W supports (around $1.50) working supports buyer entry. If Bitcoin holds $75,720 support, XRP accelerates with altcoin rally. Invalidation of this scenario: daily close below $1.5028.

Target Levels

First target is $2.1924 (score 35/100) upon breaking $1.7347 and $1.9595 resistances. With stronger momentum, Fibonacci extension levels could test $2.50+. Risk/reward ratio above 1:2 at $1.60 entry – but positions should only be taken after confirmation. Monitor: volume increase and RSI crossing above 50.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario activates with the break of $1.5028 support – a low-volume breakdown candle (e.g., shooting star) acts as the trigger. MACD's further negative histogram expansion and Supertrend maintaining its down signal reinforce momentum. Staying below short-term EMAs, combined with 3D/1W resistance abundance, increases selling pressure. Bitcoin losing $75,720 and heading to $74,493 accelerates correlated downside in XRP. Additional risk: liquidity hunt with volume drop. Invalidation: strong close above $1.6390.

Protection Levels

First protection after $1.5028 break is intermediate support around $1.40, main target $0.9054 (score 21/100). Deeper drop points to MTF supports at $0.80. Risk/reward potential of 1:3 in short positions – stop loss recommended above $1.65. Monitor: negative volume profile and RSI below 20.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Main triggers: high-volume closes at $1.5028 and $1.6390 levels. For bulls: $1.64 breakout + RSI recovery; for bears: below $1.50 + no MACD divergence. In both scenarios, 4-hour chart candles and OBV (On-Balance Volume) divergences are critical. Market volatility is high – avoid early entries, wait for confirmation. Follow live data from XRP Spot Analysis and XRP Futures Analysis pages.

Bitcoin Correlation

XRP is a highly correlated altcoin to BTC (%0.85+); BTC is in downtrend with %-7.20 drop from $77,929. If BTC holds $75,720 support, XRP bounce chance increases, but $74,493 break brings cascade selling in altcoins. If BTC resistances $80,357/$83,043 are broken, XRP bull scenario strengthens. BTC Supertrend bearish – XRP traders should watch BTC main support at $64,655, as dominance increase pressures XRP.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

XRP's future hinges on the $1.50-$1.96 pivot: upside break brings rally, downside break deep drop. Monitoring list: 1) $1.5028 volume test, 2) RSI/MACD divergence, 3) BTC $75k movement, 4) 1D candle closes. Traders should prioritize risk management and be prepared for both scenarios. This analysis is a tool to develop your own decisions – learn market dynamics.