Willy Woo Flags Bitcoin (BTC)'s Biggest Stock Divergence in Nearly a Decade

Woo's 2015 Analogy

On-chain analyst Willy Woo argues that Bitcoin (BTC) is decoupling from equities to a degree unseen in nearly ten years, a setup he likens to the phase that preceded the 2017 bull market. In a September 6 post on X, Woo published a long-term chart pairing BTC against the S&P 500, writing that the last time the two assets diverged this sharply was 2015, which he called the prologue to the 2017 bull run. His cycle reading: in 2014 equities held a bull trend while Bitcoin endured an uncorrelated bear market; across 2015 and 2016 the relationship inverted, with BTC entering “bull mode” as stocks chopped sideways, before the two markets realigned in 2017. “I think the current setup looks similar... Bitcoin’s liquidity keeps strengthening, while stocks begin to show signs of fragility,” he wrote. That fragility thesis has legs beyond one chart — our earlier coverage of Japan’s $79.6B FX reserve drop flagged the same macro stress vector, even as Bitcoin has already passed Japan’s ¥27.1 trillion yen-defense stress test this cycle. The decoupling narrative is a long-standing theme in Bitcoin maximalism circles, but Woo grounds it in correlation math rather than ideology: Bitcoin trades around the clock on a predetermined, halving-driven issuance schedule, with a fixed supply of roughly 21 million coins secured by proof of work — an asset profile unlike equity indices priced on earnings, rates and economic forecasts. Supporting data points to a shifting correlation regime: the 90-day BTC–gold correlation has climbed above 0.5, while the 30-day BTC–S&P 500 reading approached zero during August’s advance. The S&P 500 leg of Woo’s chart draws on Glassnode’s US equity index series, whose daily data reaches back to 2009 — though the index stands idle on weekends while Bitcoin never stops trading. Not everyone buys the parallel. Analyst Darkfost published an independent chart tracking Bitcoin, the S&P 500 and their rolling correlation from January 2020 to July 2026; his latest reading remains positive — above zero, if below prior peaks. “I don’t observe that,” he wrote, suspecting Woo averaged over a high timeframe. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone cited a 200-day correlation near 0.5 in April, a reminder that window choice can flip the conclusion. For readers mapping the cycle, our Bitcoin Rainbow Chart guide offers a long-horizon framing.

post on Xhttps://x.com/willywoo/status/2096581714797895823

Bitcoin Fights the $81,000 Ceiling

Bitcoin price action tells a more cautious short-term story. The asset ran into the $81,000 zone yet again and turned back, after a brief push above $80,400 failed to hold; the last session trades printed near $79,100, with the daily loss touching roughly 1.5% at one point (readings as of about 01:00 UTC). The broader technical structure remains intact. Following the rapid climb from about $63,000 to $80,000, price continues to hold above its major moving averages — the 200-day has risen to roughly $72,700 and the 20-day to about $75,450, both sitting beneath the consolidation as strong support shelves. The 81,000–82,000 range, by contrast, is hardening into the market’s key supply zone: repeated attempts to establish a footing above $80,000 have stalled as buyers failed to keep momentum near local highs. Momentum readings reinforce the cooling. The relative strength index has slipped from overbought territory to around 63, signaling that the initial breakout impulse is fading. A daily close above $82,000 would re-energize the move and bring $85,000 back into play. On the downside, the first support band sits at $77,000–78,000; losing it would likely steer price toward $75,500, near the 20-day average. Beneath the surface, altcoin leadership is diverging from the flagship asset. Uniswap’s UNI has more than doubled from about $3.20 in mid-August to near $7, touching $7.50 with an overbought RSI near 78; XRP is defending the $1.39 long-term threshold and its $1.35 200-day average after an intraday dip of more than 2%; Ethereum consolidates near $2,484 inside a $2,400–2,550 range, where a daily close above $2,550–2,560 would open $2,600 and then $2,650. That dispersion argues against a broad risk-on bid and keeps the burden on Bitcoin’s own tape. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Gate.

The $79,004 Line to Defend

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the nearest support, $79,004, at 81/100 — a strong shelf built from a flip of prior resistance into support, a low-volume node and the 20-day SMA — with the next tier at $77,648 scoring 79/100 on the ATR lower band, Fibonacci 0.214 and EMA 20. Overhead, $80,207 rates 77/100 from the R1 pivot, Keltner upper band and a MACD cross; spot trades at $79,340, just 0.8% below that ceiling, with RSI at 63.23 and a bearish MACD signal inside a broader uptrend. Positioning is mildly constructive: perp funding of 0.0015%, open interest near $15.53 billion and a 1.28 long/short account ratio (56.1% long), alongside a Fear & Greed reading of 69 (Greed). Holding $79,004 keeps the bullish scenario alive; a daily close below $77,648 invalidates it.