Bitcoin Holds $62K as Bernstein Blames AI Rotation, Bark Launches on Mainnet

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin's recent slide stems from softer capital flows rather than fears that quantum computing could one day break its cryptography, according to Wall Street brokerage analysts. While research suggesting blockchains might be cracked with fewer resources than once assumed has fueled speculation, analysts argue the real culprit is a rotation of retail money toward AI-linked trades. The strongest crypto performers this year have been tokenized equities and commodities, leaving Bitcoin overshadowed. Even so, the team maintains that Bitcoin still may offer meaningful diversification from the singular AI-driven momentum dominating markets, framing its quieter year as a structural feature rather than a fundamental weakness.

The same analysis quantified just how sharply demand has cooled. Bitcoin treasury companies and exchange-traded funds have absorbed roughly $12 billion of inflows in 2026, a steep drop from $60 billion in 2025. Spot Bitcoin ETF products have actually shed about $2.6 billion on a net basis from a $75 billion asset base, with most fresh buying now coming from corporate treasuries led by Strategy. Analysts note that ETF flows explain close to 45% of weekly price moves, underscoring how sensitive Bitcoin remains to institutional appetite. The modest scale of outflows, however, was described as encouraging evidence that ownership is growing less dependent on momentum-chasing retail.

Beyond the macro picture, Bitcoin's builder ecosystem delivered fresh infrastructure as development lab Second launched Bark, its implementation of the Ark protocol, on the Bitcoin mainnet. The layer-2 design lets many users share on-chain UTXOs across the blockchain through trees of pre-signed off-chain transactions, distributing fees while preserving self-custody and sidestepping the channel management that complicates the Lightning Network. The release ships a Rust-based SDK with bindings for Kotlin, Swift, Flutter, Go and Python, plus a standalone wallet daemon. Several wallets are already live, and a BTCPay Server plugin lets merchants accept self-custodial payments. Second, which has raised $5.1 million, is targeting the persistent gap between self-custody and everyday usability.

On the technical side, veteran trader Bob Loukas argues Bitcoin is running as normal a four-year cycle as they come, dismissing claims that this time is different. He places the cycle midpoint near $53,000 and identifies it as a pivotal level that could serve as both support and an attractive entry for a bear market bottom. By his framework, the window for a cyclical low opens within ten percent of week 46; the market currently sits at week 44, squarely inside that zone. Loukas expects fresh price discovery and new highs to arrive in 2028. Even after dipping below $60,000, he notes, Bitcoin remains far closer to its prior peak than to historical troughs.

Underpinning the cautious optimism is a structural shift in who owns Bitcoin. Where past cycles were dominated by retail speculators, today's holder base spans ETFs, corporate treasuries, wealth-management platforms, pension funds and sovereign investors, a composition analysts describe as more diversified and resilient. That breadth, they argue, strengthens Bitcoin's long-term store-of-value case even during stretches when it lacks the excitement of higher-beta trades. The asset has fallen more than 20% from roughly $82,000 in early May and sits about 50% below its October 2025 record near $126,000, yet the depth of this drawdown remains shallow by the standards of previous all-time high reversals.

Spot price action reflected the broader unease, with Bitcoin changing hands near $62,500 after slipping from Monday's high even as global risk assets rallied. Nasdaq 100 futures pushed higher and crude oil eased toward $89 a barrel as traders priced in a possible easing of Middle East tensions. Weighing on sentiment was a roughly $36 million exploit of the Humanity Protocol and its H token, the latest in a string of security breaches across rival chains. For Bitcoin proponents, such incidents reinforce a familiar argument that no competing network matches its security, even as short-term flows keep the price under pressure.

Technically, Bitcoin trades around $62,346, down about 2.4% on the day within a confirmed downtrend. The relative strength index near 25.5 signals deeply oversold conditions that often precede relief bounces, though momentum stays weak with a bearish MACD crossover intact. Immediate support sits at $61,800, followed by $59,130; a decisive break there would expose the $52,679 zone, strikingly close to the $53,000 cycle midpoint analysts cite as a bottom target. On the upside, bulls must reclaim $64,203 and then $66,611 to neutralize selling pressure. A daily close back above $64,203 would be the first sign the oversold bounce has legs; failure below $59,130 invalidates any near-term recovery thesis.