US Spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF Inflows Jump to $681 Million in a Week

ETF Inflows Reach $681 Million

Bitcoin (BTC) is building a firmer base for a renewed push higher, but analysts warn the rally still lacks one ingredient: genuine spot demand. Research from XWIN Research Japan flags a golden cross on the daily chart and sustained strength above the 50-week EMA as evidence the medium-term structure of the flagship Bitcoin market has improved. Institutional channels confirm the shift — net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs widened from $247.8 million to $681.2 million last week, according to a Glassnode analyst report, signaling steady accumulation through the correction. Yet apparent demand remains in negative territory, and roughly 2,487 BTC moved from whale wallets to exchanges while Binance balances held between 685,000 and 687,000 BTC, leaving latent sell pressure in place. The stated confirmation condition: a reclaim of $80,000–$81,000 alongside a positive flip in spot demand.

A Round Trip Inside the Range

The tape itself told a story of two sessions. Bitcoin slid under $78,000 on Tuesday, bottoming at $77,666 before buyers reclaimed the level and lifted price back to nearly $78,900 by Wednesday's Asian morning — leaving the coin little changed over 24 hours and roughly 2% higher on the week. The rebound played out inside a well-defined $77,200–$82,100 range, and on-chain data shows why the ceiling keeps capping advances: more than 71% of supply now sits in profit versus 67% at comparable May prices, giving the growing cohort of investors who hodl at lower cost basis a recurring incentive to sell into strength. BlackRock's IBIT, the largest spot vehicle, carries roughly $101 billion in net assets — a measure of how much institutional capital now anchors the downside.

Fed Hike Odds at 60%

Monetary policy has displaced crypto-native catalysts as the dominant driver. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, enough to lift market-implied odds of a quarter-point Fed hike on September 16 to roughly 60%. Brent crude pushing toward $100 a barrel after Middle East supply disruption, and gold holding near $4,407 an ounce — a metal whose correlation with Bitcoin has reached a six-year high — have kept the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.8%, while the two-year trades around 4.37% and the 30-year at 5.24%. Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI, where core is expected to ease to 2.4%, are the final inflation inputs before the September 15-16 FOMC. Against that restrictive backdrop, stablecoin supply expanded about $1.26 billion in seven days to $305.26 billion, a quiet structural bid under the market.

ECB Decision Next Test

The European Central Bank's September 10 policy decision is the next scheduled test. The euro carries a 57.6% weighting in the dollar index, so euro strength out of the meeting could push the DXY lower — superficially supportive for an asset consolidating near $79,000, as tracked on live Bitcoin price charts. A currency-driven index decline is not, however, proof that the tight funding conditions which have pressured risk assets and the wider altcoin market have eased. Recent price action offers the diagnostic: between September 1-3, Bitcoin rose 4.99% against the dollar and 4.63% against the euro alongside modestly falling US real rates, but the September 6-7 decline of 1.55% and 1.65% respectively was weakness no FX translation can explain.

Options Skew Turns Bullish

Derivatives positioning leans bullish even as spot lags. The 25-delta options skew flipped from +0.79% to -2.05%, meaning traders are paying a relative premium for calls over puts — insurance positioned for upside. Futures open interest sits near $37 billion, up 1% on the week and above statistical upper bounds, though perpetual CVD is essentially flat at -$176 and longs are paying less in funding costs. Spot CVD improved sharply from -$84.9 million to -$29.6 million yet remains negative, so market sells still outweigh market buys on exchanges. Elevated leverage without spot follow-through raises forced-unwinding risk on any dip — the same dynamic that recently flushed $73.5 million in long liquidations. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Bybit.

$78,284 Support Decides the Trade

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the immediate support at $78,284 at 83/100 — a strong shelf built from the EMA 20, the 0.214 Fibonacci retracement, the ATR lower band and the S2 pivot, with $74,132 next at 77/100 on a high-volume node, EMA 50 and the Ichimoku Kijun. Overhead, the $82,300 resistance scores 72/100, anchored by the 0.000 Fibonacci, the Donchian upper band and the recent swing high, while the $79,625 flip level is a weaker 44/100. With spot at $79,183, RSI at 61.32, a bearish MACD cross inside an uptrend, funding at +0.0053%, $15.65 billion in open interest, a 1.38 long/short ratio and the Fear & Greed Index at 66 (Greed), positioning already leans long. Holding $78,284 keeps the bullish scenario alive; losing it opens $76,264 and would invalidate the setup. For longer-cycle context, see our Bitcoin Rainbow Chart guide.