Bitcoin (BTC) Correlation With Gold Hits 0.56, Highest Since 2019

Bitcoin (BTC) Trades Near $77,400

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped 1.66% over the past 24 hours and was changing hands near $77,450 as of midnight KST on September 13, capping a broad risk-off session our Bitcoin market coverage tracked across every major pair. Ethereum (ETH) fell harder, down 2.59% to $2,539.55, and most large-cap altcoins closed in the red — XRP lost 1.76%, Solana 1.21% and Dogecoin 1.56%. Bitcoin's market share eased to 58.66%, down 0.12 points, hinting at modest capital rotation even as prices fell. Activity thinned across the board: total crypto volume printed roughly $62.9 billion, DeFi turnover dropped 24.57%, stablecoin volume fell 36.98%, and derivatives turnover contracted 42.64% to about $509.5 billion — a picture of short-term caution rather than panic selling.

Gold Correlation Hits 0.56

Thursday's hotter-than-expected producer price reading hit every asset at once: gold, the Nasdaq-100 and BTC all dropped more than 1%, while the 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.37%, its strongest finish since Washington reintroduced the bond in 2006, per the Treasury's daily yield-curve data. The macro shock exposed a structural shift underneath. COINOTAG's review of rolling four-month correlation windows, built on daily returns at the New York close, shows Bitcoin's correlation with gold now sits at 0.56, up from roughly 0.22 in March — the highest reading since at least 2019. Correlation with the Nasdaq-100 moved the opposite way over the same span, from 0.54 to 0.36. Bitwise's research desk calls the current gold correlation the strongest in nearly six years, meaning portfolios holding BTC and gold as separate hedges now carry less diversification than the split implies.

Morgan Stanley Adds 203 BTC

Institutional accumulation continued through the drawdown. On-chain monitoring data shows Morgan Stanley bought roughly 203.446 BTC — about $15.81 million — across three consecutive sessions, lifting its spot Bitcoin ETF holdings to 7,855 BTC, valued above $600 million. The buying stands out given how dependent this cycle's advance has been on ETF demand, as our earlier ETF-only rally analysis highlighted. It contrasted with a deleveraging tape: Bitcoin futures open interest shed approximately $1 billion in the 24 hours after the August CPI release, which printed at 3.4% year-on-year. As we noted when the golden cross faded within hours of the $79,837 rally, CPI prints have repeatedly whipsawed technical signals. Washington is the next swing factor: the Senate holds a procedural vote on the market-structure bill on September 15, and our revised CLARITY Act explainer details what CFTC registration would mean for DeFi.

Analyst Puts Bottom Odds at 70%

Analyst Kevin Capital argues three signals suggest the bear phase is ending. First, Tether's USDT dominance has lost its daily uptrend — a shift typically read as capital leaving stablecoin safety for risk assets. Second, Bitcoin and Ethereum have reclaimed moving averages that acted as resistance throughout the bear market. Third, the current drawdown has now exceeded 300 days, a duration that historically preceded cycle bottoms. On that basis he assigns roughly a 70% probability that Bitcoin's bottom is already in, expresses higher conviction on Ethereum and about 60% for Solana, and plans staged purchases through year-end. He flags 6.8%, 6.2% and 5.9% as key USDT.D support zones, cautioning that bounces in stablecoin dominance could still trigger short-term pullbacks across BTC, ETH and SOL.

The Midterm Year Pattern

A separate historical lens frames 2026 similarly. Analyst CryptoGoos highlights that Bitcoin struggled in every US midterm election year on record — 2014, 2018 and 2022 — with CryptoQuant research finding declines exceeding 60% in each. The 2018 cycle saw BTC collapse from nearly $20,000 to under $3,500; in 2022, the FTX implosion days after the November 8 vote dragged the market toward $16,000. The constructive part of the pattern is what follows: across the last three cycles, Bitcoin averaged gains of more than 50% in the 12 months after a midterm vote. With 2026 prices still far below the October 2025 all-time high, the setup rewards patience and a buy-and-hold HODL discipline over leveraged chasing. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Gate.

$77,057 Support in Focus

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $77,057 support at 77/100, driven by the confluence of the 20-day EMA, the 0.214 Fibonacci retracement, a swing low and the lower Bollinger Band, while the deeper $73,775 floor scores 79/100 on the Ichimoku Kijun, 50-day EMA, high-volume node and 0.382 Fibonacci. Overhead, the $77,720 pivot scores 64/100 (pivot point, MACD cross) and $79,510 resistance scores 67/100 (R1, ATR upper, Bollinger upper). Positioning reads balanced: funding at 0.0017%, open interest near $15.0 billion and a 1.69 long/short ratio (62.8% long) show no leverage excess, and the Fear & Greed Index at 63 (Greed) leaves room on both sides. A daily close below $73,775 would invalidate the uptrend thesis; holding $77,057 keeps a retest of $79,510 in play, with RSI at 55.56 and a bearish MACD signal favoring consolidation first.