10X Research Flags Bitcoin (BTC) Miner Buy Signal With 80% Historical Hit Rate

Long-Term Holder SOPR Reclaims 1

Bitcoin (BTC) is working its way out of its bottoming zone and toward what one on-chain analyst calls the start of a genuine recovery. In analysis published on September 15, crypto analyst CW8900 argues that the market has shifted from a bearish phase into a neutral regime, based on the behavior of the oldest coins on the ledger. The metric at the center of his read is the long-term holder (LTH) SOPR — the Spent Output Profit Ratio, which measures whether coins moved on-chain by long-term holders are being realized at a profit or a loss. That ratio, he notes, has climbed back above the 1.0 line and is trending upward, meaning long-dormant HODL supply is once again changing hands in profit rather than at a realized loss. During the preceding weakness, the same ratio sat under 1, signaling loss-realization; the crossing back above it is what defines the regime shift. Long-term holders, by convention, are coins unmoved for roughly 155 days or longer, so the cohort excludes fresh speculative flow and tracks conviction capital — which is why its spending behavior is treated as the market's structural thermometer. The historical pattern gives the reading its weight: in past cycles, LTH SOPR peaked above 6 at each major top, a level implying long-dormant coins were sold at roughly six times their acquisition cost, the signature of full-scale profit-taking. CW8900's framework holds that the peak of the current cycle will only be confirmed once LTH SOPR crosses above 6 and distribution gets underway. Until that threshold is reached, a rising reading above 1 points to early-recovery conditions rather than late-cycle froth. For a framework on the asset itself and a visual of where prior tops and troughs sat, see our Bitcoin (BTC) cycle guide and Bitcoin Rainbow Chart guide.

Miner Buy Signal at 80% Hit Rate

A separate on-chain development points the same direction from the supply side. 10X Research, the digital-asset research firm, reported through its official channel on September 14 that a Bitcoin miner buy signal has triggered — a metric built to flag the end of miner capitulation and the start of network recovery. The mechanism matters. When Bitcoin mining margins compress below sustainability, miners become forced sellers of their reserves, and prolonged capitulation episodes have historically marked market bottoms; the buy signal is designed to catch the moment that forced selling exhausts and the network begins to heal. The firm's own historical dataset gives the signal a strong record — with clear caveats. Across ten prior occurrences, eight were followed by steep upward rallies, an 80% hit rate. The median post-signal gain across the sample ran to 58.6%, while the simple average return came in near 41%. Bitcoin has reclaimed the $78,000 area, and the bull case is straightforward: a repeat of even the statistical average would put a run at the $100,000 mark back on the table. The risk case is just as concrete. In two of the ten historical episodes, Bitcoin fell a further 24% and 40% respectively after the signal printed, and analysts caution that a sample of ten observations is far too small to treat as law — a global liquidity shock or an unexpected external negative could erode the indicator's reliability quickly and replay those earlier drawdowns. Timing sharpens the stakes. The signal landed squarely inside a macro and regulatory super week: CME FedWatch currently prices more than a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark rate at this week's FOMC meeting — a pivot that historically lowers risk-free yields and pushes liquidity toward risk assets — while the Senate readies a vote on CLARITY Act market-structure rules, the bill that would settle US digital-asset jurisdiction. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Binance.

FOMC and CLARITY Vote Hold the Keys

Two independent on-chain gauges are now telling the same story — a shift our Bitcoin coverage reads as regime change rather than price prediction. Long-term holder SOPR back above 1 shows the oldest conviction coins are once again being spent in profit, while the miner buy signal indicates proof-of-work economics have stopped forcing supply onto the market. Neither metric says how far price goes; both mark the end of the forced-seller phase. The decisive variables this week sit off-chain — a Fed rate cut priced above 90% on CME FedWatch and the Senate's CLARITY Act cloture vote — so the on-chain floor case meets its macro test within days. Until LTH SOPR approaches the 6 level that marked prior cycle tops, the data favors the recovery thesis.