If Bitcoin (BTC) Repeats Its 13-Year October Record, CNBC Host Sees Bull Market Setup

October's 13-Year Record

For the bullish October call to land, the Bitcoin (BTC) price would have to extend a pattern that has held in 10 of the last 13 years: a monthly gain averaging close to 19%. A CNBC host set out that condition in a video published Friday, Oct. 2, arguing that October has been one of the strongest calendar months for the Bitcoin market since 2013 and that only three Octobers in that span finished lower. The figures behind the argument, covering 2013 through 2025, show 10 positive Octobers with an average gain of roughly 19% and a median of about 14%. The three losing years produced shallower declines: about 12% in 2014, roughly 5% in 2018 and about 4% in 2025. Between 2019 and 2024 the month rose six years in a row, a streak that snapped in 2025, when the asset printed a high near $126,000 early in the month and then rolled over. Part of the seasonal case is mechanical. October follows a statistically weak September, so the month often captures the rebound. The host added that early signs this month point toward the outcome Bitcoin (BTC) supporters expect, and that the market may already be positioned to enter a new bull phase. Readers of our Bitcoin Rainbow Chart guide will recognize the framing: cycle position, not the calendar alone, decides how a seasonal tailwind plays out. Comparable year-end calls have stacked up elsewhere, including a projected finish near $100,000 and a separate 2026 projection above $100,000, each conditional on demand arriving rather than on the calendar. The pattern is wide enough to matter for position sizing, because the spread between the 19% average and the 4% worst case is the entire risk question for the month. The October record is a base rate, not a promise: it says what the month has done, not what it must do.

The market that the October thesis leans on has already cleared one condition this quarter: a regulatory shock that failed to hurt. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hogan published a memo on Wednesday, Sept. 30, analyzing why prices rose after the CLARITY Act stalled, and his conclusion was that crypto traded long-term certainty for “better rules” delivered sooner. The sequence began on Sept. 15, when the Senate voted 49-50 against the motion needed to end debate and advance the bill to a floor vote, a motion that required 60 votes to pass. From that defeat through the memo's publication, Bitcoin (BTC) gained 8% and Ethereum 7%. Hogan identified four sectors positioned to benefit from the collapsed timeline: stablecoins, crypto exchanges, tokenization platforms and tokens that generate yield. Two regulatory actions back that read. On Sept. 17, the SEC granted exemptive relief allowing tokenized United States equities to trade among a limited group of participants, and on Sept. 25, the agency's division of corporation finance published a non-binding FAQ stating that a buyback announcement is not, by itself, a basis for treating an asset as a security. Hogan's stated risk cuts the other way: a January 2029 administration could seat stricter leadership at the SEC and the CFTC and unwind the current decisions. He judged a major rollback unlikely, on the ground that large financial institutions are continuing to build operations on blockchains. His memo treats the post-vote rally as the market pricing in rules that arrived faster than the failed bill would have delivered them, with the cost of that trade pushed to a later date.

The Condition Still Unmeasured

COINOTAG's read: the October case is a set of conditions, and the record behind it shows which are met. The regulatory-relief condition has landed, with the Sept. 17 exemption and the Sept. 25 FAQ on the record. The political condition is unmeasured: the January 2029 risk sits at the edge of the timeline, and nothing in the record sizes its probability. What a repeat needs next is demand, whether through Crypto ETF flows, holders who HODL through the month, or whale accumulation; our earlier piece on Bitcoin (BTC) Uptober gains framed the same test, and our Bitcoin technical analysis tracks the levels in play.