Fundstrat's Sean Farrell: Bitcoin (BTC) Can Top $100,000 in 2026 If Treasury Cuts Long Bond Supply

Farrell's $100,000 Condition

Bitcoin (BTC) can still cross $100,000 before the end of 2026, but only if the US Treasury changes how it funds itself, according to a new call from Fundstrat's head of digital asset strategy, Sean Farrell. For that number to land, rising borrowing costs would have to push the Treasury toward cutting long-dated bond supply, a move Farrell argues would expand liquidity and support the Bitcoin price. In an interview published Friday (October 2), according to Coinage, Farrell said growing pressure in the US bond market could harden into a strong bullish catalyst for crypto, and that enough signals now exist to treat the current bottom as a durable cycle floor rather than a pause inside a downtrend. Nothing in that argument requires a crypto-native driver. The trigger he watches is a funding decision made in Washington, which is what separates this call from chart-based forecasts: the catalyst would be an administrative choice about what kind of debt the government issues, filtered through bank balance sheets into the money supply. His case rests on fiscal arithmetic. Farrell points to a US debt-to-GDP ratio above 120% and a budget deficit running near 6% to 7% of GDP. At those levels, each rise in interest rates compounds the government's financing bill, and he expects the Treasury to respond by trimming long-term bond issuance and leaning harder on short-term bills. Should that shift arrive, banks absorbing more of the shorter paper could support money creation in the private sector, and scarce assets would stand to benefit first. Farrell is careful about timing, stressing that such a process would unfold gradually rather than through a sudden break, which is why the claim stays conditional even as the backdrop he describes is already taking shape.

Liquidity, Bills, and the 50-Week Signal

Farrell's mechanism runs through bank balance sheets rather than through crypto-specific flows. In the scenario he describes, the Treasury would buy back long-dated bonds while financing itself with bills, an intervention he frames as liquidity-friendly rather than contractionary. The distinction matters because short-dated bills roll over quickly, keeping that funding in constant contact with bank reserves, while long bonds lock a holder's position in place for decades. As banks absorb more of the shorter paper, private-sector money creation gets a lift, and over time the dollar's purchasing power wears down. He likens that debasement to a “slowly melting ice cube”, a process spread across years, with scarce assets such as Bitcoin (BTC), whose halving schedule keeps new supply shrinking on a fixed clock, positioned to outperform during the stretches when the dollar loses ground. The last bear market's unusually shallow drawdown, mild by the standards of earlier cycles, is one more marker he reads into that structural change, since it suggests a larger share of supply sits with holders inclined to HODL through the lows. For readers mapping these drawdowns against past cycles, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart lays out long-term valuation bands for exactly that kind of comparison. On the technical side, the price spent a long stretch under the 200-day moving average before reclaiming it, a sequence Farrell notes has historically been positive. Bitcoin also cleared its 50-week moving average decisively a few weeks ago, a move he thinks could mark a change in the long-term market regime and open the door for trend-following strategies to commit capital to the Bitcoin market. His targets have shifted with conditions: a $115,000 objective set at the start of the year is one he no longer expects within 2026, though $100,000 stays on the table. A short-term correction is not excluded either, and he expects strong buyers, crypto whales among them, to reappear if the price dips roughly 10% from current levels.

The Treasury Calendar Is the Test

COINOTAG's view: the load-bearing condition in Farrell's call is also the one furthest from confirmation, since nothing on record yet shows the Treasury actually cutting long-dated issuance. The primary document that would settle the question is the next quarterly refunding statement itself, and Farrell's framing is explicit about the threshold: a cut to issuance in the 10-to-30-year band, or a more aggressive step, becomes a quite strong catalyst. Until that document exists, $100,000 stays a conditional path, and one that sits well below Ali Martinez's $190,000 target, tied to a breakout of Bitcoin's two-year rising channel, a gap that captures how far apart analyst timelines still run.