Bitcoin (BTC) Slips Below ¥12 Million as bitbank Analyst Flags FOMC Downside Risk

Hot PPI Breaks the ¥12 Million Line

The yen-denominated pair led this week's weakness, with Bitcoin (BTC), the flagship Bitcoin (BTC) market pair, changing hands near ¥11.9 million at midday on September 11, according to the weekly chart review published by bitbank analyst Yuya Hasegawa. The slide began Monday, when a hotter-than-expected US jobs report and rising expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike pushed the dollar lower against the yen, dragging the pair from ¥12.5 million down toward the ¥12 million area. A mid-week rebound ran out of steam after the US Treasury sized a long-duration bond buyback operation at $6 billion — well below the $70–90 billion markets had anticipated — and said future buybacks would hold at a minimum of $40 billion, deflating hopes for liquidity support. The decisive break came on September 10: August's producer price index accelerated year-on-year in both headline and core terms, firming expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee could hike next week, and BTC lost ¥12 million outright. Oil rallied the same day after President Donald Trump indicated the Iran conflict would continue past the midterms, and the pair briefly touched ¥11.8 million. Rate pricing has swung sharply: last week, Fed governor Christopher Waller's support for a hold while inflation stays contained cut the September hike probability in fed funds futures to roughly 40%, but the jobs print and PPI have revived hike warnings, with Chair Walsh's Jackson Hole pledge to act if inflation re-accelerates in the background. Hasegawa notes this meeting updates the Summary of Economic Projections, and even a hold could add dot-plot supporters of a year-end hike. He flags the September 15 procedural step to bring the CLARITY Act to full Senate debate as a potential positive that may prove insufficient against the FOMC, and watches $75,500 (about ¥11.63 million) as the range floor, with $70,000 (about ¥10.8 million) as the next downside target if it gives way.

Pompliano’s $5,000 Stimulus Thesis

While traders brace for the Fed, a fiscal storyline is building on the demand side. Anthony Pompliano, chairman and CEO of Nasdaq-listed ProCap Financial, which carries Bitcoin (BTC) on its balance sheet, argued in a September 10 post on X that the more the government hands out, the higher bitcoin, gold and land prices climb. His comment responded to Trump's September 9 pledge, made at the Republican National Committee's midterm summit in Dallas, to send $5,000 to every adult American citizen if Republicans keep control of both chambers in November. The proposal requires congressional approval; Vice President J.D. Vance said the payments would exclude the wealthy and suggested tariff revenue could fund them, while a September 10 White House statement branded the plan the “Trump dividend.” The market's first reaction was muted: BTC traded below $78,000 on the morning of September 10, holding a $77,500–$78,500 band that had prevailed since the prior afternoon. Precedent explains why analysts watch such checks closely — in April 2020, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong shared a chart showing a surge in $1,200 deposits, with a Binance US representative describing similar inflows, suggesting some stimulus money reached exchanges. Whether recipients choose to hold or spend matters for the thesis, and venture capitalist Tim Draper pushed it further on September 10, predicting retailers may eventually demand payment in Bitcoin (BTC) alone — a drift toward Bitcoin maximalism in daily commerce. Pompliano's case ultimately rests on bitcoin's halving-capped supply meeting fresh fiat inflows, while a separate midterm-year playbook our desk reviewed maps history showing roughly 50% post-election BTC gains should the November vote resolve favorably. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on MEXC.

@APompliano · X post

September 10 post on X.

View on X

Two Tailwinds, One Scarce Asset

After the PPI-driven slide, weekend trading brought a pause: Bitcoin spent September 13 pinned in a narrow $77,000–$77,400 band, below its $1.55 trillion market cap level on CoinMarketCap, with its altcoin dominance slipping to 58.7%. The week's volatility included an early-September push to $82,400 that was rejected after the jobs report, followed by a post-CPI flush to $76,000 — a multi-week low — before a surprising one-hour rebound to $79,800 gave way back to the $77,000 area. The action instead shifted to altcoins: Lisk (LSK) exploded 325% in a day to $0.82, an 800% weekly surge that lifted it to the 92nd-largest asset by market cap, while BTW added 11% to over $0.55, CRO gained 3%, and PUMP climbed 6%. Ethereum, rejected near $2,700, fought to hold $2,500, and total crypto market cap held roughly flat at $2.64 trillion.

On-chain supply signals added a new wrinkle to the weekend picture. Lookonchain reported on September 13 that Binance's bitcoin holdings had climbed to 693,000 BTC, a two-year high and an increase of roughly 77,000 coins since late April, accounting for about 30% of all BTC held across major trading platforms. Rising exchange balances can signal a larger pool of coins available for sale, though the data does not distinguish between genuine selling and internal wallet reshuffles, custody changes or deposit preparation. Analysts flagged the $83,000–$85,000 zone as the level to watch, warning that a concentrated offer wall there, combined with growing exchange balances, could amplify downward supply pressure, with spot prices, volumes and deposit-withdrawal flows serving as the next confirmations.

(as of 07:39 UTC) At COINOTAG, our aggregate data frames the collision: the Fear & Greed Index reads 61/100 (Greed), Bitcoin commands 67.9% of our tracked universe, and tracked market cap stands at $2.29 trillion. Tightening money meets fiscal stimulus — a squeeze scarce assets can absorb, though the housing overhang we flagged as a macro test for Bitcoin remains unresolved.