Bitcoin (BTC) Slips to $77,000 Ahead of August CPI Report

Treasury Yields Near 5% Cap Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) has lost ground for a second straight session, trading near $77,000 on Thursday morning, and the direction of the next move rests on a single data point: the August U.S. consumer price index, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization slid from levels above $80,000 earlier in the week as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 4.94% and the Dollar Index firmed near 99.15 — a combination that has drained appetite for duration-sensitive assets, crypto included. For readers new to the asset, our complete Bitcoin guide explains the mechanics behind these macro sensitivities.

The core anxiety is composition. If borrowing costs rise because growth is strong, risk assets can cope; if they rise because inflation is re-accelerating, the math for BTC turns hostile. Trading firm QCP framed it bluntly in its latest note, calling this “the worst mix for Bitcoin: a competing 5% risk-free rate without the nominal-growth impulse that usually accompanies yield moves.” The firm also flagged Brent crude’s spike to $109 a barrel, which makes the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight materially harder just days before its September rate decision. Consensus expects core CPI — the measure that strips out food and energy — to have risen 0.2% from July. Prediction markets currently price the odds of a hike next week near 61%, broadly in line with QCP’s estimate of roughly two-thirds. A softer print would deflate rate-rise expectations and hand bitcoin room to recover; an upside surprise risks another leg higher in yields. On our weekly chart read, BTC is pressing against the 50-week exponential moving average at $77,374 after failing at Fibonacci resistance overhead — a weekly close below that line would signal fading momentum and open a path back toward $70,000.

FOMC, Bank of Japan and CLARITY Act Loom

Thursday’s CPI is only the first gate before a packed calendar. A weekly outlook from Tokyo-based brokerage Monex Securities traces how the slide unfolded: bitcoin briefly touched $82,000 early in the week on dovish comments from Fed governor Waller, then August U.S. nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000 — far above forecasts — reviving tightening fears and pushing BTC below $80,000. After the Labor Day holiday lull, Washington’s strike on an Iranian oil tanker and Iran’s retaliation against U.S. ships and regional bases sent crude higher, stoking inflation anxiety. BTC extended losses toward $78,000, and spot Bitcoin ETF flows flipped to net outflows, weakening a key demand pillar. Monex frames the coming week around three pivots: the FOMC, where opinion is split between a hold and a 0.25% hike — a hold with calmer yields invites buying, a hike would strengthen the dollar and pressure BTC; Chair Walsh’s press conference, for guidance on the rate path; and the Bank of Japan meeting, where an additional hike is nearly fully priced. A Fed hold paired with a BoJ hike would narrow the U.S.-Japan rate differential and could support bitcoin through a softer dollar, though a renewed yen-carry unwind would hit all risk assets. Domestically, the CLARITY Act faces a Senate cloture vote on September 15 requiring 60 votes — passage would fuel regulation-clarity buying, rejection would likely trigger disappointment selling. Monex guides a near-term range of $75,000 support against $83,000 resistance. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Bitget.

Greed Holds at 56 Despite the Dip

COINOTAG aggregate data shows sentiment has not cracked: our Fear & Greed Index reads 56/100 — still Greed — with BTC commanding 68.3% of our tracked $2.27 trillion market universe. Retail has not capitulated; leverage, not conviction, is being tested, and long-term HODL behavior remains intact heading into the CPI print.