Bitcoin (BTC) Stalls Below $80,000 as On-Chain Selling Pressure Fades

Holders Step Back From Selling

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $78,000 after failing once again to defend the $80,000 level, and on-chain data points to an absence of fresh spot buyers — not a return of sellers — as the reason for the stall. The coin, the original proof-of-work asset, recently reclaimed $78,000 after sliding to $77,945 on Binance, but the next milestone has stayed out of reach. Net Realized Profit and Loss has flipped back into positive territory, and Long-Term Holder SOPR sits at 1.2, meaning coins moving on-chain are still being spent at a profit rather than at a loss. In plain terms, holders who rode out the drawdown have largely stopped capitulating. Accumulation addresses — wallets with no withdrawal history — now control roughly 2.3 million BTC, and depositors showed little urgency moving coins onto exchanges even as price pressed toward $80,000, behavior consistent with a disciplined HODL posture among long-term owners. Hedge funds appear to have read the same setup and trimmed short exposure. The macro backdrop then tested that base: August US payrolls printed at 162,000 against a 53,000 consensus, pushing implied September rate-hike odds near 60%. Even so, the Bitcoin market absorbed a hawkish repricing that normally drags crypto lower alongside equities — market maker Wintermute noted the asset still closed the week 3.45% higher.

Wintermutehttps://x.com/wintermute_t/status/2097271478849007929

Spot Demand and Liquidity Lag the Rebound

The missing ingredient is spot participation. The 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta for spot markets remains neutral, and futures buyers — not spot flows — have led the rebound, a divergence analyst Darkfost flagged in a market update on X. Exchange liquidity tells a similar story. Binance stablecoin reserves peaked above $50 billion this cycle before draining by nearly $7 billion; the past month returned $1.6 billion to reserves, and the 90-day change in Binance's stablecoin market cap has recovered to -1.6% from -17%. Darkfost reads that recovery as genuine but too sluggish to carry the move on its own. Institutional demand is firmer: US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF products attracted $986.9 million in the week ended September 4, extending the inflow streak to three weeks and roughly $3.8 billion in cumulative flows — a structure explored in our crypto ETF guide. Still, ETF demand does not automatically convert into open-market buying, and a negative Coinbase Premium alongside elevated whale deposit ratios remain warning signs. XWIN Japan therefore treats a sustained break above $80,000, paired with stronger spot demand, as the clearest confirmation of a bullish shift. The next tests are dated: US CPI lands September 11, followed by the Federal Reserve's September 15–16 meeting — with institutional appetite for exposure such as Bitcoin perpetual futures for US institutions still expanding. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on MEXC.

a market update on Xhttps://x.com/Darkfost_Coc/status/2097764043453010112

The $79,414 Line to Watch

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $79,414 resistance at 87/100, driven by a Flip S→R, Ichimoku Tenkan and R1 confluence — with $80,876 next at 69/100 (BB Upper, Donchian Upper, Swing High). Nearest support at $77,464 scores 84/100 (EMA 20, Fibo 0.214, BB Lower); losing it shifts focus to $74,131, itself a strong 80/100 shelf (HVN, Ichimoku Kijun, Fibo 0.382). Positioning is crowded-long: funding at 0.0042%, open interest at $15.51 billion and a 1.57 long/short account ratio (61.2% long) — leverage that would amplify any rejection. With RSI at 58.10, a bearish MACD signal inside an uptrend and Fear & Greed at 69 (Greed), a decisive close above $79,414 reopens $80,876, while a break below $77,464 invalidates the constructive thesis.