Bitcoin (BTC) Stalls Below $80,000 as On-Chain Selling Pressure Fades

Holders Step Back From Selling

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $78,000 after failing once again to defend the $80,000 level, and on-chain data points to an absence of fresh spot buyers — not a return of sellers — as the reason for the stall. The coin, the original proof-of-work asset, recently reclaimed $78,000 after sliding to $77,945 on Binance, but the next milestone has stayed out of reach. Net Realized Profit and Loss has flipped back into positive territory, and Long-Term Holder SOPR sits at 1.2, meaning coins moving on-chain are still being spent at a profit rather than at a loss. In plain terms, holders who rode out the drawdown have largely stopped capitulating. Accumulation addresses — wallets with no withdrawal history — now control roughly 2.3 million BTC, and depositors showed little urgency moving coins onto exchanges even as price pressed toward $80,000, behavior consistent with a disciplined HODL posture among long-term owners. Hedge funds appear to have read the same setup and trimmed short exposure. The macro backdrop then tested that base: August US payrolls printed at 162,000 against a 53,000 consensus, pushing implied September rate-hike odds near 60%. Even so, the Bitcoin market absorbed a hawkish repricing that normally drags crypto lower alongside equities — market maker Wintermute noted the asset still closed the week 3.45% higher.

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Wintermute.

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Spot Demand and Liquidity Lag the Rebound

The missing ingredient is spot participation. The 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta for spot markets remains neutral, and futures buyers — not spot flows — have led the rebound, a divergence analyst Darkfost flagged in a market update on X. Exchange liquidity tells a similar story. Binance stablecoin reserves peaked above $50 billion this cycle before draining by nearly $7 billion; the past month returned $1.6 billion to reserves, and the 90-day change in Binance's stablecoin market cap has recovered to -1.6% from -17%. Darkfost reads that recovery as genuine but too sluggish to carry the move on its own. Institutional demand is firmer: US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF products attracted $986.9 million in the week ended September 4, extending the inflow streak to three weeks and roughly $3.8 billion in cumulative flows — a structure explored in our crypto ETF guide. Still, ETF demand does not automatically convert into open-market buying, and a negative Coinbase Premium alongside elevated whale deposit ratios remain warning signs. XWIN Japan therefore treats a sustained break above $80,000, paired with stronger spot demand, as the clearest confirmation of a bullish shift. The next tests are dated: US CPI lands September 11, followed by the Federal Reserve's September 15–16 meeting — with institutional appetite for exposure such as Bitcoin perpetual futures for US institutions still expanding. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on MEXC.

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The $79,414 Line to Watch

The pullback has deepened since that assessment: Bitcoin slipped back below $78,000 on September 10, touching an intraday low of $77,688 after opening the session at $78,306, and losing the 4-hour Supertrend level near $78,203. Trader Daan Crypto Trades counted the fifth 4–6% drawdown in three weeks, noting that price remains boxed inside a wider $76,000–$81,000 range with volatility but no clear trend. CoinGlass's one-week liquidation heatmap shows the nearest heavy liquidity band around $77,300–$77,600, while clusters near $80,500 and $81,800 loom above; trader Lennaert Snyder said he is watching for a sweep of $77,300 before considering longs toward $80,000. Macro pressure persists, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.86% and oil above $100 per barrel keeping inflation risk alive ahead of PPI and CPI prints.

While Bitcoin stalls, Ethereum has emerged as the cycle's outperformer, climbing roughly 37% over the past ten days to briefly touch $2,564 and holding in the mid-$2,400s as of September 10. Per Farside Investors data, US spot ETH ETFs absorbed about $1.31 billion in net inflows across eight straight trading sessions from August 20–31, including a single-day peak of $226 million on August 27. Corporate treasuries add a second leg: BitMine Immersion Technologies disclosed on September 8 that its holdings reached 5,929,198 ETH — about 4.9% of the 122 million supply — with 5.07 million ETH staked, while CoinGecko counts 34 listed companies collectively holding 7.94 million ETH, roughly 6.5% of supply. Bitcoin itself is not being sold — it is up about 30% recently — but it lacks ETH's combination of ETF flows and yield-bearing corporate accumulation.

(as of 12:53 UTC) COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $78,284 resistance at 69/100, driven by an LVN, HVN, Pivot Point and BB Middle confluence — with $80,602 next at 68/100 (R2, Keltner Upper, BB Upper, Fibo 0.000). Nearest support at $75,539.50 scores 60/100 (Donchian Lower, S3, Flip R→S, BB Lower); losing it shifts focus to $74,131.55, itself a strong 79/100 shelf (Keltner Lower, Ichimoku Kijun, HVN, Fibo 0.382). Positioning is crowded-long: funding at 0.0047%, open interest at $15.37 billion and a 1.58 long/short account ratio (61.3% long) — leverage that would amplify any rejection. With RSI at 54.27, a bearish MACD signal inside an uptrend and Fear & Greed at 69 (Greed), a decisive close above $78,284 reopens $80,602, while a break below $75,539.50 invalidates the constructive thesis.