Bitcoin Climbs to $63,000 as Markets Shrug Off Iran Airstrikes

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed 1.2% to around $63,000 on Thursday as digital-asset markets shook off a fresh round of U.S. airstrikes on Iran, with our reading of the tape showing risk appetite tracking equities higher. U.S. forces struck 90 military targets in the latest escalation, yet Nasdaq 100 index futures added 2.6% over 24 hours and crypto followed. The move leaves Bitcoin roughly 9% above its June monthly close, extending a recovery that began at the start of July. On-chain flow data shows buyers stepping in from oversold territory, underscoring how quickly the market has priced past the geopolitical shock.

The rebound followed a sharp reversal earlier in the week, when Bitcoin fell more than 3% to about $61,500 after President Donald Trump declared the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire over at the NATO summit. Ether and Solana slid alongside it as traders trimmed risk, while oil jumped roughly 5%, pushing U.S. crude near $77 a barrel. Bitcoin had gained about 5.5% in July before the slide erased much of that progress. At current levels the asset trades more than 50% below the record above $126,000 it set last October, a reminder of how far the recovery still has to run.

Select altcoins have outpaced the majors through the rebound. Lighter (LIT) and ether.fi (ETHFI) rose 5.6% and 8.5% respectively on Thursday, extending monthly gains near 35%, while ENA added 5.6% yet remains more than 91% below its September 2025 peak. Despite the pockets of strength, the broader altcoin complex stayed range-bound: the widely tracked Altcoin Season indicator ticked up a single point to 47/100. Our read is that investors are holding back from rotating aggressively into smaller-cap tokens until the crypto majors stage a more decisive breakout, keeping capital concentrated in Bitcoin and the largest names.

Derivatives data points to caution rather than conviction behind the bounce. Aggregate futures volume fell almost 20% to $191 billion over 24 hours, while total open interest held steady near $106 billion. Notably, dollar- and USDT-denominated Bitcoin futures open interest slipped to 266,000 BTC from 272,000 BTC even as spot recovered toward $63,000 — a divergence that signals reluctance to place leveraged bets in a volatile macro backdrop. Open interest, the total value of outstanding futures contracts, also thinned for ether, XRP and solana. The pattern suggests the recovery is being led by spot buyers rather than aggressive leverage.

Independent analyst Ali Martinez framed Bitcoin as sitting in valuation no man's land, citing MVRV pricing bands that place the coin between the -0.5 and -1.0 zones with no clear edge at current levels. He flagged $63,000 as a stubborn resistance, noting on-chain records show roughly 623,000 BTC last changed hands near that price — one of the largest supply clusters on the chart, where break-even sellers could add pressure. Should Bitcoin fail to reclaim $63,000 and slip below $59,000, Martinez identified $46,000 and $37,870 as the next major supports, levels where about 115,000 and 206,000 BTC previously traded.

Sentiment data underscores how tightly the market is now tethered to headlines out of the Middle East. On-chain analytics platforms recorded war-related chatter across crypto social channels surging to its highest level since April, with sharp spikes in mentions of terms like war, Iran and ceasefire following Trump's latest warning. Analysts caution that volatility could stay elevated until the geopolitical picture clears. Even so, growing skepticism toward political statements through 2026 may blunt the market impact relative to earlier flare-ups this year, leaving Bitcoin and the wider market exposed mainly to short-term swings.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $63,687 resistance at 76/100 — our strongest overhead level — driven by the confluence of R1, the Fibonacci 0.236 retracement and the prior-day high, with the $67,369 barrier scored 62/100 on BB Upper and the EMA 50. Immediate support sits at $61,909, rated 73/100 on S1, Ichimoku Senkou A and the Bollinger midline. Derivatives read cautiously bullish: perpetual funding holds positive at 0.0057%, open interest stands at $12.1 billion and the long/short account ratio of 1.59 shows 61.5% of traders positioned long. With a Fear & Greed reading of 22 (Extreme Fear) and RSI at 49, a clean break above $63,687 opens $67,369, while losing $61,909 invalidates the bullish case and exposes $60,430.