Bitcoin Holds Near $64K as Middle East Tensions Rattle Risk Markets

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) slid toward $64,000 on Monday as an escalating US-Iran military confrontation pushed investors out of risk assets. Ether and XRP weakened alongside it, with XRP struggling to reclaim the $1.10 area and drifting toward $1 support. Short-term momentum improved marginally, yet major moving averages continued to cap any advance, keeping deeper corrections on the table if risk aversion persists. Reports of nine consecutive days of strikes on Iranian command and defense sites, alongside tanker disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, kept safe-haven flows dominant. The pullback dragged the broader altcoin complex lower, underscoring how tightly crypto remains bound to geopolitical headlines.

Despite the conflict, Bitcoin staged a rebound attempt toward $65,000, supported by renewed diplomatic signals and steady institutional demand. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $500 million in net inflows over the past week, with the flows led by the largest asset manager’s vehicle, according to fund-flow data. Progress on US crypto market-structure legislation added to the constructive tone. A softer dollar index near 100.71 and a partial unwind of oil’s spike also helped equities and Bitcoin firm. Even so, traders stayed cautious, with derivatives desks noting that positioning remained defensive amid unresolved geopolitical risk and choppy intraday liquidity.

On the charts, several desks kept upside targets near $67,000 intact. Bitcoin sealed a third consecutive weekly close above its 200-week simple moving average, currently around $63,322, a level long treated as a cycle demand zone. Analysts flagged that a decisive push back above the 200-week exponential moving average near $68,521 would be needed to shift the structure convincingly higher; until then, price remains trapped in a broad range around the $60,000s. On-chain data shows the Puell Multiple ticking upward, though observers cautioned against declaring a generational low while momentum and spot demand stay uneven.

The rebound coincided with fresh diplomatic overtures. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a negotiated outcome with Iran remained possible, even as strikes continued, while President Donald Trump asserted US control over regional waterways. The comments tempered fears of an uncontrolled escalation. Brent crude, which briefly pushed above $85 per barrel as traders priced shipping and supply threats, eased back toward $82 after mediators reportedly submitted de-escalation proposals. Bitcoin held the low-to-mid $64,000s through the session, tracking the improved risk backdrop. The interplay between oil, the dollar and diplomacy remained the dominant short-term driver for spot flows.

A second pressure point emerged from technology markets after a Beijing-based lab released Kimi K3, a 2.8 trillion-parameter model aimed at coding and agent tasks. The launch stoked concerns that cheaper Chinese AI systems could disrupt US chipmakers and software leaders, sparking a tech-sector wobble. Because Bitcoin has traded closely with technology-heavy equity indices during recent risk-off sessions, the selloff spilled into crypto, briefly sending BTC nearly 2% lower to about $63,785. Chart watchers warned that reclaiming $65,047 is required to confirm a recovery toward $67,000, while a break below $62,708 could expose $60,000 support and trigger further liquidations.

Underlying positioning painted a mixed picture. Bitcoin futures open interest climbed to roughly $47.81 billion, rising about 0.3% over a four-hour window, signaling that leverage was rebuilding even as spot demand cooled from its early-July peak. Aggregate sentiment reached its highest reading since the start of June, yet the Crypto Fear & Greed Index still sat at 29, in Fear territory. Some cycle analysts argued 2026 fits a post-peak bear market phase, contrasting with the record push that defined last year’s all-time high. That tension between improving momentum and defensive macro conditions framed the week’s range-bound action.

(as of 16:01 UTC) COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $66,902 resistance at 85/100, our strongest overhead level, built on the confluence of a support-to-resistance flip, the Keltner upper band and Fibonacci 0.382, with $64,966 close behind at 78/100 (Donchian upper, swing high, R3). On the downside, our engine scores $63,783 support at 77/100, anchored by the SMA 20, Bollinger middle band and Ichimoku Tenkan. Derivatives read cautiously constructive: funding sits at a mild positive 0.0043%, open interest near $12.5 billion, and a 1.59 long/short ratio (61.4% long). With RSI at 52.4 and a bullish MACD, a reclaim above $64,966 targets $66,902; a close below $62,553 invalidates the thesis toward $61,064.