Bitcoin (BTC) Hit $81,400, Highest Since May, on Cooling Inflation

Core Inflation Cools to 3.05%

A 3.05% reading on three-month annualized core inflation — the gauge that strips out food and energy — is the number behind Bitcoin's return to the $80,000 zone. The July print sits well below the 4.76% level recorded in February, and for markets it was the clearest sign yet that the early-year inflation scare is fading rather than entrenched. The three-month series reads only the most recent quarter of price data and annualizes it, so it turns faster than the 12-month figures and often moves first when the direction of inflation shifts. Bitcoin (BTC) responded directly, trading as high as roughly $81,400 intraday on September 3 — its strongest level since May — before easing back toward $80,000. Fed Governor Christopher Waller supplied the catalyst. Commenting on the short-run trend, he described the improvement as significant and called the pace of the decline encouraging, remarks that loosened the market's assumption that another rate increase this month was close to certain. In his framing, price pressures that came from tariffs and energy costs — pressures traders tracked through benchmarks such as WTI crude oil — did not become the persistent inflation officials feared.

The transmission into digital assets is mechanical. Higher rates lift the yield on safe dollar-denominated assets and tighten financial conditions, which historically drains demand from risk assets; weaker hike expectations do the reverse. With the Federal Open Market Committee meeting September 15-16 and the decision due September 16 at 2 p.m. Washington time, the implied probability of a September hike slid from about 59% to roughly 50% after Waller's comments. Two-year Treasury yields declined and the dollar softened alongside — a mix that tends to channel capital toward Bitcoin when sentiment turns.

The annual picture is less flattering. Headline PCE inflation runs at 3.7% and core PCE at 3.3%, both well clear of the Fed's 2% objective, and Waller avoided declaring price stability won. He said he could back holding the current policy rate if progress toward the target continues, but warned that a substantially hotter August reading could force another 0.25-percentage-point increase. That caution drew a public rejoinder from Peter Schiff, the long-time gold advocate. His objection was procedural as much as economic: considering a hike and actually delivering one are different decisions, and he questioned whether a single quarter-point move would contain price pressure if it re-accelerated. He also pointed to gold's recent climb of more than $100 as evidence that markets may still be pricing in meaningful inflation risk. The split is real inside the Fed as well. At the July meeting, officials favored a hold by a 9-to-3 margin, with three dissents preferring a quarter-point increase — a vocal minority on a committee that has otherwise kept the rate unchanged. Neither Waller nor Schiff expects the September decision to be an easy one. That makes the August consumer price index, due before the September meeting, the deciding input for the next policy move: it will determine whether the 3.05% short-run trend holds or reverses, and with it whether Bitcoin's rally extends or stalls. Retail flows have amplified the sensitivity, since participation through mainstream venues such as Robinhood now carries macro headlines to trading screens faster than in prior cycles — and buyers who chase strength into resistance risk becoming exit liquidity if the data turn. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on MEXC.

August CPI Before the September 16 Decision

COINOTAG's aggregate market data captures the appetite that followed. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 73 — in Greed territory — with Bitcoin holding 68.4% of our tracked market universe and total tracked market cap near $2.34 trillion, a bull-market posture that assumes inflation keeps cooling. Where the key figure stands now: three-month annualized core inflation is at 3.05%, and August CPI lands before the September 16 decision.