Bitcoin (BTC) Holds Near $77K Ahead of Fed's First Rate Hike Since 2023

Fed Hike Odds Hit 90% for Wednesday

Federal Reserve rate futures now attach roughly 90% probability to a 25-basis-point hike at Wednesday's September 16 meeting — the first US rate increase since July 2023, after 175 basis points of cuts spread over 2024 and 2025 left the federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75%. The repricing built in stages. Chair Kevin Warsh's August 28 Jackson Hole address, his first major speech since taking the job, noted that 54% of items in the personal consumption expenditures basket had risen more than 3% over the past twelve months and declared price stability the Fed's primary focus; hike odds jumped from the low-30s to about 60% on that speech alone. Governor Waller said days later he was willing to wait one meeting but would “pull the trigger” if inflation turned back up, and the September 4 payrolls report — 162,000 new jobs against 55,000 expected — carried the odds to 70%. The September 11 CPI print sealed it: 3.4% headline, 0.4% month over month, both in line with forecasts, pushed futures-implied odds to 90%, and Deutsche Bank now projects a second hike in December.

What stands out to us is how risk assets absorbed the hawkish shift. US equities closed up roughly 1% on the CPI day, ending a four-session slide; gold held above $4,400; and Bitcoin (BTC) oscillated near $77,800, briefly touching $79,800 intraday before easing back — it now changes hands around $77,000. Part of the resilience sits in fiscal policy: Treasury Secretary Bessent has scaled long-bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, executed a $6 billion purchase on September 9, and long yields still finished the week at 4.96% on the 10-year and 5.38% on the 30-year, the highest since June 2007. On-chain yield strategies such as restaking must now compete with that 4.96% ten-year. The dot plot and Warsh's press conference will decide whether the “one-and-done” reading survives the week.

August's inflation split told two stories, and metals traders traded the softer one. Headline CPI ran at 3.4% year over year, but core — excluding food and energy — cooled to 2.4%, the lowest annual reading in 66 months, down from 2.5% in July. Virtually all the pressure came from energy: gasoline up 27.4% year over year, energy up 16.3%, airfares up 23.4%, while used cars fell 2.3% and shelter rose a steady 3.0%. Within roughly thirty minutes of the release, market analysts estimate more than $740 billion flowed into gold and silver; silver ripped from about $63.80 to above $65 on heavy trading volume, and futures later touched $65.70 before closing Friday around $64.43, up 1.4% on the day. The near-term map is nonetheless crowded: wave-based technical work flags a corrective structure on the 4-hour chart, with an initial pullback toward $60 and, if that shelf fails, a deeper zone near $58 before any retest of $66. Near-term support sits at $65 and the $64.60 breakout area. There is an obvious tension here — a core print that still leaves the Fed above target is a tightening argument, and tighter policy ordinarily burdens non-yielding metals. The market's answer so far is that this inflation is supply-driven and therefore immune to the funds rate; silver's $66 test and Bitcoin's $77,000 shelf will put that thesis to a live check. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Gate.

Greed Reading of 61 Into the FOMC

COINOTAG's aggregate market data keeps risk appetite in expansionary territory: the Fear & Greed Index reads 61/100 (Greed), Bitcoin commands 68.0% of our tracked universe, and tracked market cap stands near $2.28 trillion — with layer-1 alternatives lagging and muted bids in volatility proxies such as the UVXY ETF. Positioning already assumes the hike; the surprise would be the dot plot.