Bitcoin Reclaims $62K After In-Line CPI as Weekly Loss Hits 16%, ETF Outflows Top $5.5B

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin clawed back above a critical support band after briefly slipping under $60,000 — its first visit below that threshold since February. The largest cryptocurrency was changing hands near $63,200, holding above both its weekly 200-period simple and exponential moving averages, levels that anchored prior bull-cycle corrections. Analysts now frame the $65,000-$66,000 zone as the immediate upside target, a pocket where short-term liquidity has accumulated. Traders caution the rebound is not yet a confirmed reversal: a decisive weekly close below the 200-week average could expose the $48,000-$50,000 region as the next major demand floor, where buyers would need to step back in.

Beneath the bounce, one research desk argued Bitcoin is wrestling with three simultaneous macro headwinds: the looming US inflation print, eroding confidence in AI-themed risk assets, and fresh geopolitical uncertainty stemming from renewed conflict with Iran. Holding the quarterly low near $60,037 would keep a path open toward $68,185, analysts said, but a clean break beneath $60,000 risks a slide into the $54,000 CME futures gap. A deeper flush could drag price toward the July 2024 low around $49,302. Several commentators also played down expectations of capital rotating out of technology stocks and into altcoin markets, warning instead of broad risk-off positioning across the board.

The May inflation reading landed broadly in line with forecasts, easing fears of an immediate shock. The Consumer Price Index rose 4.2% year over year — matching consensus and marking the fastest pace in three years — while core CPI climbed 2.9%. Crucially, the monthly headline gain of 0.2% undershot the 0.5% estimate, giving traders room to defend the $60,000 line. Bitcoin ticked higher after the release, reclaiming $62,000 from just above $61,000. Markets continue to price near-certain odds that the Federal Reserve leaves its 350-375 basis-point range unchanged at its June 17 meeting, though a 25-basis-point hike before year-end remains firmly on the table.

The recovery follows Bitcoin's steepest weekly drop since the November 2022 FTX collapse, a roughly 16% decline that pulled price more than 50% below its $126,000 record high. Selling intensified on June 9 after US Central Command announced strikes against Iran, sending Bitcoin down about 3% to $61,766 within hours. Spot Bitcoin ETF funds compounded the pressure with a 13th consecutive day of outflows, pushing the cumulative total past $5.5 billion. Michael Saylor's Strategy added to the unease by trimming a sliver of its reserves before buying back roughly 1,550 BTC for $101 million — a move that rattled the firm's long-standing accumulation narrative.

Institutional infrastructure kept expanding even as spot prices wavered. A new Bitcoin volatility index future began trading last week, letting participants take positions on how sharply price will swing rather than its direction. The contracts track a benchmark reflecting the market's four-week volatility expectations, and the first block trades were executed by a market-making firm and a quantitative asset manager. The launch opens hedging strategies that were previously difficult to run on regulated venues — traders can now go long or short volatility around catalysts like inflation data. The venue's crypto derivatives volume has reached roughly 266,900 contracts year to date, up about 38% annually.

On-chain data deepened the cautious mood: roughly 51.6% of the circulating supply now sits below its acquisition cost, up sharply from about 34% a month earlier. That split — with profitable and underwater coins nearly even — is historically unusual, since the majority of supply has stayed in profit for around 93% of Bitcoin's price history dating to 2010. Comparable readings clustered near the 2015 and 2018 bottoms and the 2022 FTX-driven washout. Yet history offers little promise of a swift rebound; prior episodes saw weeks or months of choppy, sideways trading consistent with a grinding bear market rather than a single capitulation low.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $61,746 resistance at 76/100, driven by the confluence of a Doji candle reaction, the prior day's close and a MACD cross, with the next firm ceiling at $64,156 (68/100, ATR Upper and POC). On the downside, the $59,158 floor scores 79/100 (ATR Lower, Fibo 0.000, Swing Low), reinforced by $61,008 at 66/100 (HVN, Pivot Point, RSI oversold). Derivatives data shows a barely positive 0.0034% funding rate against $11.7 billion of open interest, while a 2.10 long/short ratio (67.7% long) flags crowded longs vulnerable to a squeeze. With RSI at 24.10 and a 9/100 Extreme Fear reading, a sustained close above $61,746 favors bulls; losing $59,158 invalidates the thesis.