Bitcoin Reclaims $63K as Iran Deal Optimism Revives Risk Appetite

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $63,000 level on Thursday as easing geopolitical tension revived risk appetite across global markets. The move followed remarks from US President Donald Trump suggesting Iran is seeking a fresh agreement after a fractured ceasefire, a message desks read as a de-escalation signal. BTC/USD climbed roughly 1.5% intraday, tracking a rebound in US equities after the prior session's risk-off selling. Our reading of the tape shows buyers stepping in near the range lows and lifting price back above a threshold that had capped the recovery. Traders now watch the daily close, with $64,700 flagged as the level that decides near-term direction. Read our Bitcoin (BTC) primer for context.

The rebound was amplified by a wave of forced short covering. On-chain and derivatives data show short-position liquidations across the crypto market approached roughly $100 million over the trailing 24 hours as price reversed against bearish bets. A short liquidation is the forced closing of a downside trade when the market moves against it, an event that mechanically adds buy-side pressure and can accelerate a rally. The squeeze coincided with broad strength in US indices, which reversed part of the previous day's selling. Sentiment among traders remained mixed, though several noted that the structure did not look outright bearish, keeping the door open for a reclaim of higher altcoin and majors territory.

Attention now turns to Friday's options expiry on Deribit, where roughly $1.4 billion in Bitcoin contracts are set to settle at 8:00 AM UTC. The setup is finely balanced: calls up to $62,500 total about $137 million, while puts above $61,000 sit near $121 million. Our reading of the open interest suggests bulls would extend their advantage to about $190 million with a decisive move above $63,500 before settlement, whereas bears hold only a $100 million edge below $61,000. That asymmetry limits the incentive for aggressive downside pressure into expiry, and balanced put-to-call volumes point to contained risk around the $62,000 support zone.

The macro backdrop remains the key overhang. The US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed toward 4.6%, a level many read as a warning sign of investor anxiety over expanding government debt and the odds of further monetary expansion to fend off a recession. Rising yields typically drain liquidity from risk assets, and Bitcoin has felt the drag, trading sideways rather than extending gains. A sustained yield breakout would tighten financial conditions and could pressure crypto alongside equities, a scenario that keeps bear-market caution alive even as spot price stabilizes above the $62,000 shelf that bulls are defending.

Institutional flows offered a more cautious read. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $85 million in net outflows on Wednesday, ending a short three-day inflow run. On its own the figure does not confirm a durable reversal in institutional demand, but it marks a pause in the accumulation that had underpinned recent stability. Product flow data show the withdrawal was modest relative to the sector's daily turnover, and demand for Bitcoin options has stayed balanced between calls and puts. Desks are treating the outflow as noise rather than signal for now, waiting to see whether subscriptions resume once the options expiry clears and yield volatility settles.

Competition for capital from equities is compounding the sideways action. The Nasdaq-100 is trading merely 4% below its all-time high as the artificial-intelligence trade keeps drawing flows. Chipmakers led Thursday's advance, with Arm Holdings up about 10%, Advanced Micro Devices rising roughly 7% and Micron gaining near 7% intraday, helped by strong demand for a US-listed Asian semiconductor IPO. With AI equities offering momentum, some rotation that might otherwise reach digital assets is being absorbed by tech. That dynamic helps explain why Bitcoin has struggled to break decisively higher despite the reclaim of $63,000 and improving risk sentiment.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine rates the $61,878 support at 74/100 (STRONG), driven by the confluence of the Ichimoku Senkou A and Ichimoku Cloud Bottom, while overhead the $63,786 resistance scores 71/100 on Fibo 0.236 and the prior-day high. Derivatives read cautiously constructive: the perpetual funding rate sits at 0.0062%, open interest near $12.2 billion, and the long/short account ratio at 1.62 (61.9% long) signals crowded upside positioning that could unwind fast. With the Fear & Greed Index at 22 (Extreme Fear), RSI at 48 and MACD turning bullish inside a broader downtrend, a clean break above $63,786 opens $65,386; a loss of $61,878 invalidates the bullish thesis and exposes $60,622.