Bitcoin Reclaims $63K as Spot ETF Inflows Resume

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $63,000 level this week after institutional demand finally turned positive. On July 2, US spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed roughly $221.72 million in net inflows, ending a punishing 10-trading-day stretch that had bled about $2.7 billion. The move lifted Bitcoin above $63,000 for the first time since mid-June, leaving the asset up around 3.6% on the week. Traders credited three catalysts: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaling that inflation risk had eased, a soft June jobs report showing just 57,000 nonfarm payrolls, and a wave of short liquidations. Analysts flag $62,600 as the level bulls must defend to keep momentum intact.

A separate on-chain event underscored how deep some holders sit in profit. On-chain data shows 30 BTC that had not moved since August 2011 were transferred from block 956,627, breaking a dormancy of 14 years and nine months. Acquired at an average cost near $9, the coins were valued at roughly $1.88 million on transfer, a realized gain of about $1.84 million and a return of 719,353%. Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn tied the wallet to the so-called “Noah Doe” cluster and noted these dormant coins are moving faster each month. The stash is central to a court claim over 3.8 million BTC spread across 39,069 addresses, some linked to Satoshi Nakamoto.

Not every veteran is bullish. Peter Brandt, chief executive of Factor LLC and a widely followed chart analyst, said on X he is weighing selling part of his Bitcoin holdings to buy gold, arguing the metal is poised to gain substantially against the cryptocurrency. Brandt pointed to the XAU/BTC ratio, which tracks gold priced in Bitcoin, and flagged a potential rounding-bottom pattern signaling a macro shift. His timing reflects a rough stretch: Bitcoin fell about 20% in June to below $60,000, its worst month in four years, while gold slipped 11.7% to near $4,000 an ounce. Year to date, Bitcoin is down roughly 28% versus a 3.9% decline for gold.

Beneath the price weakness, ownership appears to be shifting. On-chain data indicates about 10.83 million BTC now sit underwater, or 54% of measured supply, against 9.22 million coins in profit, one of the sharpest profitability deteriorations of this cycle. Yet long-term holders have quietly resumed buying, pushing net position change back into positive territory. Accumulation trend scores rose across wallets holding under 1 BTC and entities holding 100 to 1,000 BTC, with mid-sized cohorts turning net buyers. Options desks are hedging: the 14-day put/call volume ratio climbed above 1.0, its highest reading in a year, though implied volatility has not yet reached panic levels.

Exchange flows, however, warn of turbulence ahead. On-chain data flagged nearly 49,000 BTC moving onto trading platforms on June 30, one of only five days this year approaching the 50,000-coin mark. The average single deposit doubled from roughly 1 BTC to 2 BTC, a signature of whales and institutions repositioning rather than retail shuffling. Historically, such surges have preceded major directional moves and skew bearish. Bitcoin has been repeatedly testing the $60,000 support zone, and a decisive break could open the door toward the roughly $53,000 realized-price level, echoing the deleveraging that dragged the market lower in June.

The derivatives structure shows why both directions carry force. Derivatives liquidation data indicates that a push through $65,050 would trigger roughly $619.87 million in forced short-position closures across centralized exchanges, fueling a potential squeeze. Conversely, a drop below $62,012 would liquidate about $558.34 million in long positions, accelerating any downside. That tight cluster of leverage on either side of spot leaves Bitcoin primed for an outsized swing once one boundary breaks. With ETF flows only just turning and open interest elevated, the next liquidation cascade could set the tone for the rest of July.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $63,661 resistance at 75/100 (STRONG), driven by the confluence of the R1 pivot, the previous-day close and the Fibonacci 0.236 retracement, with the next barrier at $67,369 scored 62/100 on Fibo 0.382, the Donchian upper band and the SMA 50. Immediate support at $62,510 carries a 70/100 reading from S1, the Ichimoku Kijun and the EMA 20. Derivatives show a modestly positive 0.0013% funding rate, $12.46 billion in open interest and a 1.67 long/short ratio (62.5% long), while a Fear & Greed reading of 24 signals Extreme Fear. With RSI at 49 and MACD bullish against a broader downtrend, holding $62,510 keeps the $63,661–$67,369 path alive; losing it invalidates the thesis toward $60,946 and $57,800.