Bitcoin Trading Volume Jumps 31% but Price Stalls Near $64K

Bitcoin News

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding near $64,000 even as 24-hour trading volume jumped more than 31% to roughly $16.8 billion, a surge in activity that has yet to translate into price momentum. As of the latest reading, Bitcoin changed hands around $63,924, up just 0.32% on the day and trading beneath the midpoint of its $63,670 to $64,445 range. The mismatch between rising turnover and a flat tape signals that buyers and sellers are evenly matched at this level. Volume relative to market capitalization sat at only 1.31%, underscoring that heavier participation has not tipped the balance. Bitcoin remains roughly 49% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198.

On-chain data continues to withhold confirmation of a genuine trend reversal. Analyst Ali Martinez notes that the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), the Puell Multiple and Reserve Risk are all failing to flash bullish signals. The aSOPR, which measures whether coins are moving at a profit or loss, points to ongoing loss-taking, while depressed miner revenue and cautious long-term holders round out the picture. Taken together, the metrics describe an accumulation phase rather than the start of a fresh bull leg. Weak on-chain follow-through explains why the recent bounce has struggled to convince investors that Bitcoin has decisively turned the corner.

A more constructive case comes from Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick, who argues Bitcoin is undervalued near $64,000 and reiterates a year-end target of $100,000, implying roughly 56% upside. Kendrick contends the market has underpriced Strategy’s (MSTR) shift toward treating Bitcoin not merely as a reserve asset but as collateral backing its STRC preferred shares. He frames current levels as a strong buy, arguing the structural demand implied by that model is not yet reflected in spot pricing. For confirmation, he flags a break above $64,445 as the first hurdle for renewed upside, with $63,670 the near-term line that bulls must defend to avoid revisiting the range lows.

Technical uncertainty adds another layer to the outlook. Developers pursuing competing upgrade paths have set a hard fork known as eCash for activation on August 21, a scheduled protocol split that could complicate short-term sentiment. Should the fork produce a genuine chain split, holders’ balances would be duplicated across both chains, but exchange support and disputes over legitimacy could amplify volatility. A hard fork, in which a blockchain permanently diverges into two incompatible versions, historically injects uncertainty as markets weigh which chain retains value. For now, the August timeline sits as a known calendar risk that traders are beginning to price into their positioning.

Wallet-level activity shows a split between retail and larger holders. On-chain data indicates that core whale wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC net purchased roughly 495 BTC over a recent six-day stretch, enough to halt weeks of net selling but short of aggressive accumulation. Retail investors, by contrast, bought steadily while Bitcoin lingered below $60,000. Social-media mentions of Bitcoin fell 18% week-over-week even as price recovered, a divergence suggesting existing holders repositioning rather than fresh capital drove the rebound. Retail-led bounces have historically extended when whales follow, making the behavior of large wallets the pivotal variable from here.

Longer-term valuation gauges are improving. The 365-day MVRV ratio, which compares market value to the average price at which coins last moved, sits around -27.5% for Bitcoin, versus roughly -38% for Ethereum and -45% for XRP and other altcoins, readings that historically mark discounted zones rather than euphoria. Bitcoin has climbed about 9.2% from its June 29 low near $58,100 and gained 3.5% over the past week. Bullish and bearish commentary runs close to neutral at about 1.06 to 1, a balance that leaves room for further recovery yet offers no clear catalyst to reclaim $70,000 quickly and avoid slipping back toward bear-market conditions absent a fresh driver.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine rates immediate resistance at $63,927 a maximum 100/100, driven by the confluence of the R1 pivot, a stochastic overbought reading and a low-volume node, with the next STRONG barrier at $66,342 (98/100) where a flipped support, the Ichimoku cloud bottom and the upper Keltner band align. On the downside, our engine scores the $63,651 support 100/100 on Fibonacci, HVN and the 20-day SMA. Derivatives data shows a positive 0.0037% funding rate, $12.4 billion in open interest and a 1.41 long/short ratio (58.6% long), a modestly bullish tilt. With RSI at 52.6 and Fear & Greed at 26, a daily close below $63,651 would invalidate the recovery thesis, while reclaiming $66,342 opens room toward $69,200.