Bitget Wallet Analyst Sees Bitcoin (BTC) at $93,000 on Easing Yields

Bitcoin (BTC) price could extend toward $90,000 to $93,000, but only if Treasury yields keep easing and upcoming inflation data reinforces September's weak employment picture, according to a scenario Bitget Wallet research lead Lacie Zhang laid out in an Oct. 5 assessment. Her forecast rests on two legs. The first is financial conditions: the CME FedWatch probability of an October rate hike has fallen to roughly 23% from about 64% one week earlier, after September payroll growth came in at just 29,000 jobs against economist expectations of 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. The second is demand. Zhang said the Fed repricing has already provided a meaningful boost to Bitcoin (BTC), yet US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, supportive as they are, have not been strong enough on their own to force a breakout through resistance.

The level she watches first is $87,400. Buyers need to reclaim that mark on a daily or weekly closing basis, with continued ETF subscriptions and stronger spot purchases behind it, before the advance counts as a confirmed breakout. Her reading of recent price action is that “profit-taking and existing supply” are absorbing institutional demand: repeated failures to hold above $87,000 show positive fund flows have yet to overcome selling near the recent highs. Bitcoin had recovered from roughly $83,000 toward $86,000 around the payrolls release, which put the $87,000–$87,500 resistance area back into view. Above that zone sit her $90,000 and $93,000 targets; below it, support at $84,000 and then $82,000. Her forecast is conditional rather than an unconditional October price call, since she ties the higher levels to falling yields and supportive inflation data instead of a base case. Within the broader Bitcoin market, that map of support and resistance levels now frames Bitcoin technical analysis heading into the next inflation prints.

Fund flows tell the same story of demand arriving without breaking through. US spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs attracted about $2.65 billion during September, in Zhang's tally, and roughly $134 million across October's first two trading sessions. The pace has been uneven. Over Sep. 21–25, BlackRock's IBIT took in about $1.16 billion, Fidelity's FBTC $701.6 million and ARK 21Shares' ARKB $294.7 million, while daily inflows slowed from roughly $999 million on Monday the 21st to $134.5 million on Friday the 25th, though every session stayed positive. Earlier in that stretch, weekly crypto ETF inflows of $2.39 billion had come alongside a 4.3% slide in Bitcoin to about $83,500, as 10-year Treasury yields climbed from around 4.95% to 5.20% on inflation concerns, an existing upward trend in yields and doubts about government finances. Since then the yield picture has shifted: the 10-year climbed above 5.34% on Oct. 1 before easing toward 5.25%, and a further decline is the condition Zhang attaches to her upside scenario. The Federal Reserve itself raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on Sep. 16, with September projections placing the median year-end policy rate at 4.1%, up from 3.8% in June. Her listed downside risks are stronger-than-expected Consumer Price Index or Producer Price Index readings, renewed oil-driven inflation, hawkish Fed guidance and another rise in long-term yields, any of which could revive hike expectations and push Bitcoin (BTC) toward $84,000. HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun has warned that another hike could make investors read September's decision as the start of repeated tightening rather than a one-off preventive move. For US investors holding Bitcoin directly, whether in a hot wallet or through spot funds, he pointed to long-term yields, ETF flows and derivatives leverage as the factors to follow, with heavy borrowing raising the risk if conditions turn.

The number most readers will take from this assessment is $93,000, yet the load-bearing record behind it is public: CME FedWatch pricing, built from fed funds futures, is the primary source for the 23% October odds, and the September payrolls release is the primary labor record behind the repricing. The assumptions behind the $90,000–$93,000 band, however, are not on the record: they are summarized in an analyst note, not published as a reproducible model. Our read: with Strategy and IBIT already holding 1.65 million BTC, about 8% of the supply cap, and lending infrastructure such as S&P Global's $10 billion Vault Risk Assessment maturing, incremental spot demand of the strategic Bitcoin reserve kind is the missing piece between relief rally and breakout.