BlackRock's IBIT Sheds $300M in Bitcoin ETF Outflows

Bitcoin News

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $231 million on Monday, extending a stretch of soft demand for the asset. Our reading of the fund-flow data shows BlackRock's IBIT drove the selling with $300 million in redemptions, only partly offset by $50 million flowing into ARKB and $35 million into GBTC. The outflows landed as a powerful equity rally pulled capital elsewhere: Wall Street's technology surge spread into Asia, where regional benchmarks are tracking their strongest quarter in nearly 17 years. Bitcoin is not participating in that rotation, as dollars chase the AI-infrastructure trade instead of Bitcoin.

Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, moved to loosen its long-standing pledge never to sell. The company's investor-relations disclosure outlines a new capital framework authorizing up to $1 billion in buybacks of common and preferred shares, alongside a $1.25 billion asset-monetization plan that explicitly permits selling Bitcoin to fund dividends, interest and repurchases. The shift marks a notable departure from Michael Saylor's never-sell doctrine. Management also raised the dividend yield on its STRC preferred shares from 11.5% to 12% and lifted reserves, a move that helped STRC rebound roughly 16% from below $72 toward the $84 area as investors weighed the trade-off.

Separately, Illinois became the first U.S. state to impose a per-transaction tax on cryptocurrency activity. The new 0.2% levy applies to nearly every buy, sale, transfer and custody service that exchanges provide to state residents, and it takes effect on January 1, 2027. Critics have labeled it the most hostile crypto tax framework in the country, arguing it penalizes routine on-chain movement rather than realized gains. The measure adds a fresh regulatory headwind for U.S. trading venues already navigating thin demand, and it could push some activity toward exchanges domiciled outside the state once the rule goes live.

The macro backdrop is dominated by a collapsing Japanese yen. Dollar-yen climbed as high as 162.40 on Tuesday — its weakest level since 1986 — after Tokyo's policy guidance signaled limited appetite for aggressive rate hikes. A softer yen lifted the broader dollar and pressured risk assets, even as equities rallied and altcoins such as Ethereum and Solana ticked higher. Traders are also watching U.S.-Iran working-level talks scheduled in Doha, alongside this week's U.S. employment data, as the next catalysts. Bitcoin has lagged the risk-on move, trading below $60,000 while gold slipped under $4,000 an ounce.

One striking feature of the current market is Bitcoin's unusually tight link to the currency market. The 52-week rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar-yen exchange rate has reached -0.90, the most negative reading since late 2022. Squaring that figure implies an R-squared near 0.81, meaning roughly 81% of Bitcoin's weekly moves can be statistically explained by shifts in USD/JPY. The direction matters: a -0.90 reading means Bitcoin and the yen have tended to strengthen or weaken together against the dollar. That undercuts the classic carry-trade view that a firmer yen should automatically trigger risk aversion across crypto.

On-chain data reinforces the cautious tone. The amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges has climbed since late May and stayed elevated through June, a pattern that typically signals investors are positioning to sell rather than withdrawing for long-term storage. Price action confirms the weakness: June is on track to close with a monthly decline exceeding 15%, one of the steepest drops of the year, with Bitcoin slipping under the psychologically important ¥10 million level on local pairs. With the asset still trading far below its all-time high, some traders are drawing comparisons to the selling pressure of the 2023 bear market.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $58,195 support at 83/100 — our strongest level — anchored by the confluence of the lower Bollinger Band, the lower Keltner Channel and the S3 pivot. Immediate resistance sits at $60,884, scored 77/100 on the prior-day high and Fibonacci 0.114 cluster. With RSI near 32 (approaching oversold) and a Fear & Greed reading of 15 (Extreme Fear), positioning looks stretched: aggregate open interest stands at $11.7 billion and the long/short account ratio is 2.69, or 72.9% long, leaving crowded longs exposed. Our reading: a reclaim of $60,884 reopens $62,780, while a decisive break below $58,195 invalidates the base and exposes $51,387.