Bitcoin Price Outlook as Guotai Junan Predicts Fed to Pause Rate Cuts in January With 25bps Remaining

Guotai Junan Securities expects the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts in January, leaving just 25 basis points of easing for the final two FOMC meetings chaired by Powell, per Jin10. The forecast signals a protracted restrictive stance and tighter liquidity into early next year, a dynamic closely watched by crypto markets for cross-asset risk appetite.

For digital assets, the hold could temper near-term upside while preserving downside risk if liquidity remains constrained. Traders may see a muted risk-on stance as USD strength persists and funding costs stay elevated, limiting speculative leverage in Bitcoin and the broader crypto markets. Investors should align portfolios with macro cues, monitor the Fed policy path, and employ disciplined risk controls as policy normalization evolves.