Ethereum Could Rally to $2,245 on Break Above $1,796 Resistance

Ethereum News

Ethereum (ETH) could extend its recovery toward $2,245 if it clears the $1,796 resistance level, according to widely followed technical analysis circulating across trader channels. Analyst Ali Martinez flagged $1,796 as a pivotal ceiling, noting it aligns with a market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) resistance band and the baseline of the TD Sequential trend indicator. Above it sits a secondary barrier at $1,816. Our reading of the setup is that a decisive push through both levels, followed by a break of the $1,844 channel top, would open a path toward $2,245 — a zone Martinez ties to the on-chain average cost basis of ETH holders.

Ethereum was changing hands near $1,777 in Asian afternoon trading on July 7, slipping about 0.28% over 24 hours as the broader market traded mixed. Bitcoin eased 0.16% to roughly $63,295, leaving the two largest assets in a shallow retreat while parts of the altcoin complex diverged. Recent market data indicates the total crypto market capitalization held near $2.18 trillion, with 24-hour spot turnover around $86.4 billion. The muted move kept ETH rangebound below the resistance cluster analysts are watching, reinforcing a cautious tone as traders weighed whether the pair could build momentum for a breakout attempt.

The technical case leans heavily on two on-chain and momentum tools. MVRV, which compares an asset's market value to the aggregate price at which coins last moved, tends to mark resistance where large cohorts of holders return to profit. The TD Sequential indicator, meanwhile, counts price bars to time potential trend exhaustion and reversals. Our reading is that the confluence of an MVRV ceiling near $1,796 with the TD Sequential baseline gives the level added weight. A clean daily close above it would signal that sellers who accumulated at higher prices are no longer capping rallies — a prerequisite for any sustained move higher during what remains a cautious tape.

Beneath the headline pairs, altcoin performance splintered. Solana added around 0.49% and Tron edged up 0.08%, while XRP fell 1.50%, BNB dropped 0.91%, Dogecoin sank 3.00% and Hyperliquid lost 2.00%. The combined altcoin market capitalization stood near $915 billion. Ethereum's own share of the market ticked up marginally to 9.82%, even as Bitcoin dominance rose to 58.10%, a sign that defensive capital kept favoring the largest assets through a broadly bear market-style risk-off session. For ETH, holding relative share is modest support for the bullish thesis, though it underscores that a decisive catalyst is still absent from spot flows.

The $2,245 upside target is not an arbitrary figure. On-chain data places it near the average acquisition cost of the broad ETH holder base — the price at which the typical coin was last bought. Levels like this often act as magnets in a recovery, because they mark where a large share of wallets moves from unrealized loss back to breakeven, frequently triggering a wave of profit-taking and decision-making. Reaching $2,245 would require ETH to first reclaim the $1,844 channel top that has capped recent attempts. Until that ceiling gives way, the on-chain cost-basis target remains a longer-horizon objective rather than an immediate destination for spot buyers.

Positioning data pointed to rising activity even as spot prices stalled. Crypto derivatives turnover jumped more than 71% over 24 hours to roughly $811 billion, a spike that typically reflects growing leverage demand and the potential for sharper swings. Stablecoin volume also surged around 63% to about $88.8 billion, with the segment's market capitalization near $283 billion — a build-up of sidelined capital that can move quickly once direction becomes clear. DeFi turnover, much of it flowing through automated market maker venues, climbed roughly 38% to $9.5 billion. Taken together, the flows suggest traders are repositioning rather than committing, waiting for ETH to resolve its range.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine rates the $1,833.64 resistance at 66/100, the strongest overhead barrier, driven by the confluence of the previous day high and the Donchian upper band; a firmer ceiling sits at $1,985.30, scored 54/100 off the Fibonacci 0.500 retracement and the 100-period SMA. On the downside, our engine grades $1,731.96 support at 73/100, anchored by the S3 pivot and the Fibonacci 0.236 level. Derivatives read constructive: a positive 0.0042% funding rate, $6.65 billion in open interest and a 1.76 long/short ratio (63.7% long) lean bullish, while a Fear & Greed reading of 27 signals lingering caution. A daily close above $1,833.64 favors the bulls; losing $1,731.96 invalidates the setup.