Goldman Sachs Predicts 25 Basis Point Fed Hike at September 16 FOMC, Bitcoin (BTC) in Focus

Goldman Flips to a Hike Call

Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of the September 16 FOMC meeting — a sharp reversal for a bank that, as recently as July 31, was the loudest voice arguing policy would stay on hold through year-end. The bank's US research team, led by chief economist David Mericle, dropped its hold forecast after August core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month, a tenth of a point above the 0.2% consensus. The distinction mattered: analysts had framed a 0.2% print as consistent with standing pat and a 0.3% print as a trigger for action. The federal funds target range currently sits at 3.50% to 3.75%. Goldman is not alone — JPMorgan, Citigroup, MUFG and TD Securities all now expect a hike. Market pricing moved faster still: CME FedWatch data showed the implied probability of a 25 basis point hike climbing from roughly 69% just before the release to 86.5% by the end of the session, with overall pricing since drifting toward 90%. JPMorgan's consumer arm had flagged in August that slower-than-expected supply-chain normalization around the Strait of Hormuz, plus doubts about the Fed's anti-inflation credibility after July's meeting, strengthened the case for September action. For Bitcoin (BTC), the chart came close to telling a different story the same day: the 50-day EMA briefly crossed above the 200-day EMA on September 11 — the golden cross traders treat as trend confirmation — before slipping back below the 200-day line by the close. Bitcoin tapped an intraday high of $79,505 earlier in the session before easing toward the $77,200 area, and the $80,000 level has repeatedly capped price this month, with each rejection tied to hawkish repricing rather than anything crypto-specific. The daily ADX reading of 45 suggests underlying trend strength remains intact, and the 4-hour chart has held its own golden cross since late August — it was the confirmation signal that failed, not the trend itself.

golden crosshttps://x.com/CryptosBatman/status/2098702892530012666

Liquid Capital Founder's Two Scenarios

While desks repriced rate odds, Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua mapped out what the decision means for crypto positioning. His first scenario: if the Fed genuinely delivers a hike, Bitcoin could dip below $76,000 in the short term and trade with downward volatility for a period before the market can turn higher again. If the Fed steps back from a hike, he sees the current uptrend simply resuming. Given that binary backdrop, Lihua argued that unleveraged spot accumulation beats leverage while direction is unresolved. He identified three opportunity pockets. The first is the spot market for large-cap assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, where he claims roughly 4x upside potential. The second is trading infrastructure, which he argues retains growth potential of up to 100x because trading remains one of the fundamental use cases of blockchain technology. The third — a theme Binance founder Changpeng Zhao has also spotlighted — is moving corporate equities and IPO processes on-chain; Lihua believes tokenized shares and on-chain offerings could surface higher-quality, unexpectedly prominent new assets, and in doing so erode the relevance of token models that rest solely on project documentation. His framework aligns with the broader institutional case for modest sized exposure, including research backing 10% Bitcoin allocations in diversified portfolios. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Gate.

Path, Not Move, Is the Trade

COINOTAG's own aggregate market data frames the setup: our tracked universe stands near $2.28 trillion in market cap, with Bitcoin commanding a 67.9% share and the Fear & Greed Index at 63 — still Greed, but defensive under the hood. With hike odds near 90%, the September 16 decision is largely priced; the post-FOMC guidance that could signal a series of hikes is what remains unpriced, and that — not the golden cross that fizzled — is the variable traders should watch, alongside Washington's growth-first approach to a $40 trillion US debt load.