Ki Young Ju Declares Bitcoin Bear Market “Nearly Over” After $1.92B ETF Inflow

CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has declared that Bitcoin's bear market is “nearly over,” pointing to a rare convergence of on-chain, derivatives and spot-demand signals that accompanied this week's breakout. In an Aug 21 assessment, Ju said a rally of this scale in a bear market typically indicates a bottom has been put in, with pullbacks possible but the bearish phase largely finished. The call came after Bitcoin broke decisively above a six-week range spanning roughly $62,000 to $66,900. Between Aug 19 and Aug 20, price cleared that ceiling, accelerated through $70,000 and touched $79,400 on Aug 21 — a gain of about 24% from the start of the week. On Aug 20, Ju noted that Bitcoin demand had turned positive in both spot and perpetual markets for the first time since the October 2025 all-time high. On-chain data reinforced the shift. As of Aug 19, the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis — the average purchase price of recent buyers — stood near $68,500, and the True Market Mean — the aggregate cost basis across all holders — near $75,800, with spot trading below both. Within two days, Bitcoin reclaimed both levels, satisfying what analysts describe as a key condition for exiting bearish structure. Spot demand has been the crucial differentiator. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.918 billion in net inflows across five sessions from Aug 17 through Aug 21, including $606.3 million on Aug 20 alone. The rally also featured one of the largest short squeezes on record — roughly $3 billion in short positions liquidated within 24 hours, including about $1.67 billion in BTC. Forced buybacks are temporary; ETF inflows represent genuine spot demand. Ju's reversal carries weight because he had been among the market's prominent bears. In March 2025 he declared the bull cycle over, then conceded the error roughly two months later; as recently as May 2026 he warned the bear market could persist into early 2027. The shift reflects how dramatically the demand data changed rather than a chart-based call.

Bitcoin has since pulled back from those highs, trading near $77,080 in the latest session, down 1.89% over 24 hours. The retreat, which briefly pushed spot into the $76,000 range, comes as the market digests the fastest leg of this week's advance. The pullback is drawing attention because it brings price back toward the on-chain cost-basis levels reclaimed earlier in the week. The True Market Mean was near $75,800 on Aug 19, and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis near $68,500; Bitcoin's surge above both was cited as evidence that bearish structure was breaking down. With spot hovering just above the $75,000-76,000 zone, the immediate question is whether those reclaimed levels now act as support. On-chain analysts flagged the $75,000-76,000 band as the line between a bear-market rally and a genuine regime shift; reclaiming it was the first condition, and holding it is now the second. The pullback follows one of the largest short squeezes on record, and forced buybacks are a one-time source of demand; the market is now testing whether sustained spot buying — including the roughly $1.918 billion in US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows between Aug 17 and Aug 21 — can absorb profit-taking. Macro conditions remain a supportive backdrop. The US Treasury raised the per-operation cap on its Liquidity Support Buyback program for long-dated debt from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, a move that pushed long-term yields and the dollar lower and eased financial conditions for risk assets. Analysts caution that the operation is a debt-management tool rather than quantitative easing, so it does not by itself guarantee sustained upside. Traders also note that the May 2026 rebound from roughly $60,000 to $82,000 was ultimately assessed as a bear-market bounce, which is why this week's advance is being scrutinized for confirmation rather than taken at face value. The immediate focus is whether Bitcoin can defend the $75,000-76,000 support zone; a decisive break below the $68,500 short-term holder cost basis would signal a return to bearish structure.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine places Bitcoin between two strong levels: the $76,557 support (66/100, driven by the confluence of the Fibonacci 0.786 retracement, a pivot point and MACD cross confirmation) and the $78,338 resistance (60/100, anchored by high and low volume nodes alongside the Fibonacci 0.886). Derivatives positioning shows a mild long tilt — funding at 0.0063% with a long/short account ratio of 1.13 — while the Fear & Greed Index at 71 signals Greed. With RSI at 80.11, the bullish scenario requires defending $76,557 to challenge $78,338 and then $80,883. A daily close below the $72,607 support (72/100, from the flip of resistance to support and the value area high) would invalidate the breakout thesis.