SpaceX Moves Bitcoin After Six Months but 18,712 BTC Stash Stays Intact

Bitcoin News

SpaceX has moved Bitcoin for the first time in six months, on-chain data shows, reviving speculation that Elon Musk's rocket company may be preparing to sell — though no disposal has been confirmed. Blockchain trackers flagged an $88 test transfer between wallets controlled by the firm, the first outbound Bitcoin activity from its addresses since early this year. Despite the renewed attention, SpaceX's reported holdings remain unchanged at 18,712 BTC. The small transaction alone does not signal a sale, but it drew immediate market scrutiny given the company's history of preceding larger wallet reshuffles with modest test sends.

The nervousness stems from SpaceX's track record of large custodial moves. In October 2025, the company relocated 2,495 BTC — worth roughly $257 million at the time — to two newly created wallets after months of dormancy. Earlier, in July 2025, it transferred around $300 million in Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime, an institutional custody service often used ahead of position adjustments. The value of SpaceX's stake has meanwhile eroded alongside the broader market, sliding from about $1.45 billion when first disclosed to roughly $1.2 billion today. Each historical test transfer has previously foreshadowed a heavier reallocation, sharpening trader caution this time around.

A regulatory filing has complicated the picture around SpaceX's true exposure. The company's S-1 registration statement, submitted on May 21, revealed 10,427 BTC that blockchain analysts had never mapped on-chain. Prior tracking had pegged its visible balance at just 8,285 BTC, meaning public estimates captured less than half of the firm's actual Bitcoin position. The disclosure underscores how corporate crypto holdings can stay opaque even to sophisticated chain surveillance. By contrast, Tesla — Musk's other major treasury holder — has left its 11,509 BTC untouched since 2024, offering no fresh signal of intent from the billionaire's corporate empire.

Beyond corporate flows, fresh on-chain research frames Bitcoin as entrenched in a prolonged value zone. The asset has traded below the average acquisition cost of active investors for five consecutive months, a statistically cheap condition analysts describe as ‘deep value.’ Such extended accumulation below cost basis has historically laid the groundwork for cycle bottoms, though the process is not yet complete. The realized price — the aggregate average cost paid across the market — currently sits near $53,000, a level often marking the lower boundary of a bear market range. A slide toward that figure remains possible before any durable recovery takes hold.

The primary drag, the research argues, comes from long-term holders — wallets that have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days — realizing losses. Their share of total realized losses has climbed sharply, from about 15% in early February to 43% now. The 30-day moving average of their loss realization recently peaked near $280 million per day, the highest reading since December 2022. Each attempt at recovery has triggered a fresh wave of selling from this underwater cohort, capping upside near the top of the current range. Until that pressure eases meaningfully, a full return to bullish conditions stays obstructed.

Institutional demand offers little counterweight for now. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have calmed but remain in net outflow, with daily trading volumes of $650 million to $950 million running roughly 80% below the October 2025 peak — itself well off Bitcoin's all-time high — a sign institutional appetite has yet to stabilize across Bitcoin and the wider altcoin market. Derivatives positioning tells a more nuanced story: the options put/call ratio has fallen to 0.56, its lowest of 2026, implying roughly two calls for every put. Yet an elevated 25-delta skew shows traders still pay a premium to hedge downside. A sustained reclaim of the true market mean near $76,600 is seen as the condition for a genuine trend shift.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates immediate support at $61,868 a STRONG 70/100, driven by the confluence of Ichimoku Senkou A, the Ichimoku cloud bottom, the BB middle and the 20-period SMA, with Bitcoin trading near $62,200 as of this analysis. Overhead, our engine scores $62,563 resistance at 70/100 (Ichimoku Kijun, EMA 20, Fibo 0.214) and $63,787 at 69/100 (Fibo 0.236, prior-day high). Our reading of derivatives shows a positive 0.0048% funding rate, $12.19 billion in open interest and a 1.92 long/short ratio (65.8% long) — crowded longs into a downtrend, alongside a Fear & Greed reading of 22 (Extreme Fear). A daily close below $61,868 invalidates the bullish case and opens the $57,800 zone.