SPCXB Slips to $192 as $45M Shorts Stack Up, Musk Wealth Tops Bitcoin

SPCXB News

SpaceX President and Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell signaled the rocket maker is open to a future merger with Tesla, telling interviewers the two companies are aligned in direction and that combining them could make Elon Musk’s life easier. She paired the comment with a major reveal on the firm’s artificial-intelligence roadmap, confirming that the first AI data-center satellite, dubbed AI1, is slated to launch by the end of 2027, with compute first tested aboard existing Starlink broadband and mobile satellites. Tesla already holds a SpaceX stake after backing xAI, and a February xAI tie-up valued the combined entity at $1.25 trillion, keeping merger speculation central to SPCXB’s narrative.

SpaceX’s record listing has also opened a fast lane into major equity benchmarks, meaning the stock could reach millions of passive investors within weeks. Funds tracking the Nasdaq 100 can add it inside a 15-trading-day window, FTSE Russell products from the fifth trading day, and MSCI-linked funds under its large-IPO framework. The catch is float: only about 8% of shares currently trade freely, capping initial index weights at mere basis points until lock-ups expire over the next six months. S&P 500 inclusion sits further off, requiring 12 months of public trading and GAAP profitability — conditions the company cannot satisfy before mid-2027 at the earliest.

Positioning data tells a more cautious story. On a leading blockchain-based perpetuals venue, SPCXB carries roughly $304 million in open interest, and tracked smart-money wallets sit heavily net short — about $20.8 million, with 91% of exposure betting against the rally. Whales add another $23.7 million in shorts, bringing three monitored cohorts to a combined $45.3 million one-sided bearish bet, built from the IPO near $167 through the climb past $208. Some of that flow runs through algorithmic and AI trading bot strategies. One counter-signal persists: Chaikin Money Flow reads a positive +0.14, suggesting large buyers are still accumulating rather than distributing.

The rally has rekindled hope among creditors of collapsed exchange FTX, which took a SpaceX stake in 2022 through venture firm K5 Global before its implosion. As SpaceX’s valuation pushed beyond $2.5 trillion, advocates tracking the bankruptcy estate now argue distributions could climb well above earlier estimates — one widely cited projection puts final payouts at 171% of claims for customers owed more than $50,000. The estate has already returned $10.3 billion to former users. A January settlement resolved litigation tied to the K5 holding, and a richer SpaceX position could meaningfully lift recoveries for victims of the multibillion-dollar fraud.

The listing has reshaped global wealth rankings as well. With SpaceX shares trading above $200, Elon Musk’s net worth has climbed to roughly $1.32 trillion, edging past Bitcoin’s approximately $1.29 trillion market value. The comparison is possible partly because of crypto’s bear market: the total digital-asset market has slid from about $4.21 trillion to near $2.23 trillion over the past year, while Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from its late-2025 all-time high near $126,000. Musk’s fortune now exceeds the combined value of every cryptocurrency outside Bitcoin, underscoring how quickly SpaceX has become a competing magnet for speculative capital.

Beneath the euphoria, SpaceX’s financial profile remains uneven. The company reported a $4.94 billion net loss for 2025 after a $791 million profit in 2024, even as revenue grew 33% to $18.67 billion, and it logged a further $4.3 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026. After pricing its IPO at $135 and raising more than $75 billion, the stock spiked as much as 14%, briefly vaulting its market cap past $2.7 trillion and overtaking Amazon before cooling near $202. The frenzy has rippled across the broader altcoin market, amplified by macro catalysts including a Trump-brokered Iran deal that lifted risk appetite this week.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $197.22 resistance at 62/100 — the strongest overhead level — driven by the confluence of R2, VWAP and the Fibonacci 0.500 retracement, with secondary resistance at $193.96 scored 60/100 from Value Area High and HVN clusters. On the downside, support at $189.19 scores 56/100 on S1 and Prev Day Low, while $187.26 holds 57/100. With SPCXB last at $192.10, down 6%, derivatives lean firmly net short and the one-sided positioning skew signals downside pressure, while a Fear & Greed reading of 15 (Extreme Fear) caps appetite. A reclaim of $197 would flip momentum bullish; losing $187 invalidates the thesis and exposes $173.