US-Canada Tariff War Tests Bitcoin's $77K Support

Bitcoin Holds Near $77K as Tariffs Bite

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding near $77,000 as of the latest market snapshot, with the escalating tariff conflict between the United States and Canada resetting the macro backdrop for digital assets. On Aug. 22, Washington imposed 50% duties on roughly $20 billion of Canadian imports, including dairy, beer and wine, hockey equipment, machinery, textiles, cement and furniture. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney answered with a pledge to apply matching retaliatory tariffs from Sept. 8 on US steel, dairy, appliances, farm machinery and pulp. He framed the tariff response as a sovereignty issue, arguing that Washington demanded too much and offered too little. The collapse followed a reported tentative agreement that would have cut steel and aluminum tariffs from 50% to 25% and auto tariffs from 25% to 15%. US aluminum producers objected to lowering duties on processed metal, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick backed their position, and Canada's request to extend tariff-refund benefits to all North American auto parts went unanswered. Washington also sought to exclude medium and large trucks from relief, widening the gap. The dispute is not crypto-specific, but it has become the dominant risk factor for traders watching whether a broader slowdown in North American commerce spills into altcoin and Bitcoin liquidity. Trump, who has long argued that Canada should become the 51st state, said on Truth Social that Canada wants the benefits of statehood without becoming a state, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said no new talks are scheduled. In Canada, the confrontation has fueled boycotts of US products and travel, and a recent survey found 56% of adults favor a hard line with no further concessions. Support for the prime minister came from leaders in Saskatchewan and Alberta, while analysts said the rupture could mark the end of the previous US-Canada relationship. The $77,000 support zone is in focus for manual desks and automated AI trading bots alike.

Kalshi Faces $120K Daily Penalty

Separately, regulator pressure on event-contract markets is intensifying. Kalshi has blocked customers in Washington state while asking King County Superior Court Judge John McHale to reconsider an amended preliminary injunction covering seven categories of event contracts. The company says it met the Aug. 19 deadline for IP-address and residency-based controls, and a broader GeoComply location system must be operational by Sept. 2 or Kalshi faces a $120,000 daily penalty. The restrictions apply to contracts tied to sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, technology, science and certain “mentions” markets. Record-preservation requirements remain in force. Washington Attorney General Nick Brown argues the products are unlicensed gambling. The state previously won the early jurisdictional round when the court rejected Kalshi's argument that Washington law cannot reach federally regulated markets, although that finding was not a final judgment. Kalshi's reconsideration motion, which McHale will decide on Sept. 2 without oral argument, centers on an Aug. 18 agreement that lets competitor North American Derivatives Exchange (OG) keep offering federally traded event contracts while appeals are resolved. Kalshi says the same contracts the state called intolerable remain freely available through OG, undermining Washington's claim of immediate consumer harm. Courts are split: Michigan and Nevada also restrict Kalshi, while a federal judge in Minnesota blocked a similar state prohibition. New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Ohio, Maryland, Utah and Arizona also have pending disputes over prediction-market authority, so the national answer on preemption is still unresolved. The broader legal question is whether the federal Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive authority over contracts listed by registered exchanges. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig addressed that question in official remarks, saying the agency would defend its jurisdiction and soon propose amendments to Parts 38 and 40 of its regulations. The proposals are expected to cover consumer protection, product governance, market design, listing standards and incentive programs — rules that would apply to designated contract markets listing Bitcoin and altcoin derivatives.

Sept. 2 Decision, CFTC Proposal in Focus

Our reading of the two stories is that external macro shocks and federal regulatory boundaries now matter more to crypto pricing than on-chain mechanics. The tariff breakdown tests Bitcoin's resilience as a risk asset, while Kalshi's Washington fight tests how far CFTC jurisdiction extends over event contracts that function as derivatives. The amended preliminary injunction in King County Superior Court remains in effect, and the court's Sept. 2 decision on Kalshi's reconsideration motion will either preserve or relax the state's contested order. Selig's published remarks — the primary document we are tracking — commit the commission to exclusive-jurisdiction defense and to concrete rule amendments, but the text has not yet been released. Unlike algorithmic stablecoins, whose risk is largely code-driven, event-contract legality is being decided state by state. The near-term markers are Bitcoin holding above $77,000 and the Sept. 2 decision in King County.