US Treasury Doubles Bond Buybacks to $4B, Lifting Bitcoin

Treasury Doubles Bond Buybacks to $4B

Bitcoin's climb past $77,000 in recent sessions traces less to crypto-specific headlines than to the US Treasury's decision to scale up long-dated bond repurchases. The Treasury announced it would lift buyback operations for 10- to 30-year maturities to at least $4 billion per operation, up from $2 billion, after the 30-year yield touched roughly 5.34% on August 18 — its highest level since 2007. Following the announcement, the long yield eased toward 5.18%. The program runs from September 9 through November 4. Our reading of the order flow: this is a financing-structure shift, not a Fed rate cut, but the expectation of steadier long-term rates improved the relative appeal of risk assets like Bitcoin. Short liquidations amplified the move — on August 19, over $1 billion in leveraged short positions were wiped out in about an hour as the price broke above $69,000, forcing those positions to buy back into an already rising market.

Ex-Coinbase Analyst Sets $100K Target

David Duong, former head of institutional research at Coinbase, now expects Bitcoin to break above $100,000 by year-end, revising an earlier high of $85,000-$90,000. In an interview published August 22, Duong said the bottom is already confirmed in the $55,000-$60,000 range, citing structural bid from ETF inflows and the exhaustion of forced liquidations as proof of the market's resilience. He pointed to the Jackson Hole meeting and the post-Labor-Day window in early September as the likely ignition point for a sustained rally, with the Treasury's buyback beginning around September 9 and the run into the November election creating a supportive backdrop. Duong rejected the “debasement trade” framing of the recent gold-and-Bitcoin move, calling it a momentum market where traders bought a roughly 50% discount off the high. He sees additional Fed rate hikes as unlikely and expects capital to favor institutional-grade assets — RWA-linked projects, usage-proven L1/L2 infrastructure such as Ethereum, and AI-adjacent protocols — rather than narrative-driven pumps. He placed odds of the Clarity Act passing at around 20% while noting SEC and CFTC guidance easing early-project fundraising.

Consolidation Near $76.5K

After surging roughly $15,000 in days and touching near $80,000 on Friday — the first such level in over three months — Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase. Price slipped to $75,500 on Sunday before recovering to about $76,500, with market capitalization near $1.54 trillion and dominance above 58%. Most altcoins saw mild pressure; HYPE defied the trend with a new all-time high above $82. The total crypto market cap dropped roughly $100 billion from its peak to about $2.65 trillion, still up $400 billion from pre-surge levels. The move above $65,000 broke a weeks-long range, and the speed of the rally — roughly 25% in under 48 hours at the peak — made a technical retest likely. Derivatives data indicates leveraged longs have not re-loaded aggressively during the pullback, a healthier setup than the one that preceded the liquidation cascade.

30-Year Yield and BOJ in Focus

The three threads converge on a single theme: Bitcoin's move is being driven by a macro liquidity cushion from the Treasury's buyback program, structural demand from ETF inflows, and a leverage reset that cleared excess short positioning. The official Treasury announcement confirms the $4 billion per-operation buyback for 10- to 30-year maturities through November 4 — but it is not central-bank easing. The lasting test is whether spot demand holds once the short-covering impulse fades. We are watching the 30-year yield, Japan's 10-year yield near 2.9% and the Bank of Japan's September meeting for tightening signals, and the size of leveraged positions. Should long yields re-rise or Tokyo surprise with a hawkish stance, the leveraged portion of this rally could unwind quickly, putting Bitcoin's recent gains at risk.