US Treasury Doubles Bond Buybacks to $4B, Lifting Bitcoin

Treasury Doubles Bond Buybacks to $4B

Bitcoin's climb past $77,000 in recent sessions traces less to crypto-specific headlines than to the US Treasury's decision to scale up long-dated bond repurchases. The Treasury announced it would lift buyback operations for 10- to 30-year maturities to at least $4 billion per operation, up from $2 billion, after the 30-year yield touched roughly 5.34% on August 18 — its highest level since 2007. Following the announcement, the long yield eased toward 5.18%. The program runs from September 9 through November 4. Our reading of the order flow: this is a financing-structure shift, not a Fed rate cut, but the expectation of steadier long-term rates improved the relative appeal of risk assets like Bitcoin. Short liquidations amplified the move — on August 19, over $1 billion in leveraged short positions were wiped out in about an hour as the price broke above $69,000, forcing those positions to buy back into an already rising market.

Ex-Coinbase Analyst Sets $100K Target

David Duong, former head of institutional research at Coinbase, now expects Bitcoin to break above $100,000 by year-end, revising an earlier high of $85,000-$90,000. In an interview published August 22, Duong said the bottom is already confirmed in the $55,000-$60,000 range, citing structural bid from ETF inflows and the exhaustion of forced liquidations as proof of the market's resilience. He pointed to the Jackson Hole meeting and the post-Labor-Day window in early September as the likely ignition point for a sustained rally, with the Treasury's buyback beginning around September 9 and the run into the November election creating a supportive backdrop. Duong rejected the “debasement trade” framing of the recent gold-and-Bitcoin move, calling it a momentum market where traders bought a roughly 50% discount off the high. He sees additional Fed rate hikes as unlikely and expects capital to favor institutional-grade assets — RWA-linked projects, usage-proven L1/L2 infrastructure such as Ethereum, and AI-adjacent protocols — rather than narrative-driven pumps. He placed odds of the Clarity Act passing at around 20% while noting SEC and CFTC guidance easing early-project fundraising.

Consolidation Near $76.5K

After surging roughly $15,000 in days and touching near $80,000 on Friday — the first such level in over three months — Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase. Price slipped to $75,500 on Sunday before recovering to about $76,500, with market capitalization near $1.54 trillion and dominance above 58%. Most altcoins saw mild pressure; HYPE defied the trend with a new all-time high above $82. The total crypto market cap dropped roughly $100 billion from its peak to about $2.65 trillion, still up $400 billion from pre-surge levels. The move above $65,000 broke a weeks-long range, and the speed of the rally — roughly 25% in under 48 hours at the peak — made a technical retest likely. Derivatives data indicates leveraged longs have not re-loaded aggressively during the pullback, a healthier setup than the one that preceded the liquidation cascade.

30-Year Yield and BOJ in Focus

Institutional flows have accelerated sharply following the Treasury's buyback expansion, with Bitcoin spot ETFs recording roughly $1.92 billion in net inflows over the last five trading sessions — the strongest weekly figure since last October. Ethereum spot ETFs saw nearly $700 million in net inflows over the same period, also the highest since October. The pace quickened notably after the Treasury announcement, with Bitcoin ETFs drawing over $1.4 billion in just three days from Wednesday through Friday; Thursday's inflow of roughly $606 million was the largest since May 1. Analysts noted record short-position liquidations since 2021, while Standard Chartered's global head of digital asset research suggested the year-end target of $100,000 may now be too conservative, citing renewed momentum. However, observers caution that sustained spot demand — not just short covering — remains essential for the rally to hold.

The rally's macro narrative gained fresh institutional validation this week as BlackRock released a research report reaffirming Bitcoin's role as a portfolio diversifier, arguing that rising government debt and fiscal deficits strengthen the case for scarce, fixed-supply assets. The report's backtesting showed that allocating 1% to 2% of a traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio to Bitcoin improved annualized returns and the Sharpe ratio — from 0.81 in the baseline to 0.90 with a 1% allocation and 0.96 with 2% — while keeping maximum drawdown roughly flat near 20%. Meanwhile, President Trump met with crypto executives including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and the Winklevoss twins, urging Congress to pass the CLARITY Act ahead of a procedural vote scheduled for September 15. A CFTC vow to move forward with its own crypto rules if the bill fails adds a regulatory catalyst alongside the Treasury-driven liquidity backdrop.

(as of 00:51 UTC) Bitcoin's uptrend remains intact per COINOTAG's composite engine, with RSI at 79.10 (overbought) and a bullish MACD signal. The immediate technical battleground sees robust support at $75,319.51 (score 68/100), reinforced by Flip R→S, Fibo 0.214, S2, and ATR Lower, while overhead resistance at $78,447.33 (score 84/100) is backed by HVN, LVN, BB Upper, and R1. Derivatives positioning is only mildly skewed long: perp funding at 0.0068%, open interest at $14.765B, and a long/short account ratio of 1.15 (53.5% long vs. 46.5% short). The Fear & Greed Index sits at 73/100 (Greed), indicating sentiment is supportive but not euphoric. The key trigger is whether spot can hold above the $75,319 support; a break below would likely expose $71,924 and $68,719, while a decisive push through $78,447 could open the path toward $79,866 and eventually $85,402. Given the overbought RSI, a failure to clear resistance might prompt a cooling-off toward the lower support cluster.