XRP to Unlock 1 Billion Tokens From Escrow on August 1

XRP News

Ripple is preparing to unlock 1 billion XRP from escrow on August 1, the eighth scheduled monthly release of 2026. Each tranche revives short-term supply concerns, yet on-chain history shows Ripple typically returns a large portion of the freed tokens to escrow, limiting the amount that actually reaches circulation. At the time of writing, XRP trades near $1.11, and a widely circulated projection from an AI Trading Bot model set a base case of $1.18 following the release — roughly 7% above current levels. Because these unlocks are predictable and well telegraphed, the market has largely priced them in, making a single-event crash unlikely.

XRP is defending the $1.10 zone that has anchored its recent range. As of Saturday afternoon, the token changed hands around $1.108, essentially flat on the day, with a market capitalization near $69 billion. The seven-day trend sits about 3.5% lower, while the 60-day drawdown reaches roughly 24%, underscoring a broader cooling that has kept the asset in bear market territory. Technically, XRP remains boxed between $1.00 and $1.20, with the $1.00-$1.06 band treated as strongly defended support and $1.18-$1.20 as the ceiling that has capped rallies for months. A decisive move above $1.50 is what many consider necessary for a genuine trend reversal.

Three separate demand gauges cooled in early July. On-chain data showed active XRP wallets falling to 25,350, the second-lowest daily reading of 2026, while new-wallet creation slid to 2,130 — the weakest since November 2024. In derivatives, open interest on Binance XRP futures dropped to about 397 million XRP, a more-than-three-month low, signaling that traders were trimming leveraged exposure. Institutional appetite softened too: US spot XRP ETFs recorded a net outflow of $7.29 million on July 8, the largest daily withdrawal since March, breaking a nine-week streak of positive inflows even as Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows turned positive over the same week.

Not every signal points down. Analysts flagged that XRP's 30-day aggregated funding rate on Binance turned deeply negative after the token shed roughly 70% from its July 2025 all-time high. The funding rate — the periodic payment exchanged between long and short perpetual-futures traders — reaching one-sided pessimism has historically preceded rebounds. One analyst drew a parallel to April 2025, when a similar reset near $1 preceded a recovery. With speculative positioning already flushed out, observers argue that a genuine catalyst on the regulatory, macro or ecosystem front could trigger an outsized price reaction rather than another shallow bounce.

Ripple's continued business development is helping cushion the downside. News of fresh partnership agreements coincided with XRP holding the $1.10-$1.11 area even as broader selling pressure persisted. The specific counterparties and terms have not been fully disclosed, but the deals are said to reinforce XRP's core use cases in cross-border settlement, an area where instruments such as an atomic swap compete for liquidity flow. For institutional observers, the fact that ecosystem construction continues during a period of weak price momentum is itself a meaningful signal. XRP's relative resilience against a softer altcoin backdrop is read as market confidence in Ripple's enterprise and payments strategy.

The clearest catalyst analysts cite for a range breakout is progress on the US CLARITY Act, the proposed market-structure framework that would give regulators firmer legal footing to approve XRP-based products. Passage could open the door to structural expansion of institutional demand; conversely, legislative delay or an unfavorable outcome could put renewed pressure on the $1.00 support. The central question traders keep returning to is whether buyers can finally push through the $1.15-$1.20 resistance before the bill advances. Until that band gives way, XRP's price range effectively mirrors the unresolved regulatory uncertainty hanging over the asset.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $1.1121 resistance at 100/100, driven by the confluence of R1, the 20-period EMA and the Ichimoku Tenkan, with the next barrier at $1.1841 scoring 98/100 on Supertrend and Donchian Upper readings. Immediate support at $1.0978 scores a near-maximal 99/100, anchored by ATR Lower and S3. Our derivatives read shows a marginally positive funding rate of 0.0003%, open interest of $651 million and a long/short account ratio of 3.33 — 76.9% of accounts positioned long, a crowded stance that risks a squeeze. With the Fear & Greed Index at 26 (Fear) and RSI near 47, a clean break above $1.1121 opens the path to $1.18; losing $1.0978 invalidates the bullish case.