XRP in Spotlight as CLARITY Act Senate Odds Surge to 79%

XRP News

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act has stalled in the U.S. Senate over an ethics provision that would bar senior federal officials — including the president — from holding personal crypto positions while in office, a clause complicated by President Trump's estimated $1 billion in digital-asset exposure. The dispute has become the central obstacle to a floor vote, with lawmakers racing to resolve it before the chamber breaks for its August recess. For XRP and the broader altcoin market, the bill matters because it would define federal crypto rules, ending years of uncertainty that has kept many tokens far below their all-time-high levels.

President Trump was set to meet Republican senators at the White House on July 16 to assess the CLARITY Act's path through the chamber, according to people familiar with the schedule. Senators Bernie Moreno, Cynthia Lummis and Thom Tillis were among those expected to attend, with the group briefing the president on where negotiations stand. Moreno said Trump is personally engaged with the legislation and believes an innovation-friendly framework will pay dividends over time. The meeting underscores how directly the administration has involved itself in shepherding the market-structure bill toward a vote before the summer break, a priority many lawmakers see as best pursued in the current session.

Prediction markets have grown markedly more confident that the Senate will vote on the CLARITY Act before recess. On Kalshi, the implied probability climbed to 79% from 68.8% a day earlier, with roughly $3 million in contracts tied to the outcome. Traders remain more guarded on whether the bill becomes law this year, a reminder that a floor vote and final enactment are separate hurdles. Lummis has said a revised draft could reach senators within days, setting up a possible general-floor debate the following week. The odds shift reflects growing conviction that market-structure legislation finally has genuine momentum in Washington.

Ripple, the payments company behind XRP, publicly pressed the Senate on July 15 to back the CLARITY Act, framing opposition as a threat to consumer protection rather than merely a setback for industry. Lauren Belive, Ripple's co-head of global public policy and government relations, argued that voting against the bill would leave crypto holders exposed to the same regulatory gaps that have persisted as markets expanded faster than safeguards. The company contends a clear federal framework would tell participants which standards apply before they reach the market, closing loopholes that let bad actors exploit ambiguity while honest firms operate in prolonged legal limbo.

At the core of the CLARITY Act is a division of authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — a split with direct consequences for XRP's classification. The bill seeks to clarify when a digital asset is treated as a security versus a digital commodity, handing the CFTC a stronger role over spot commodity markets while the SEC retains oversight of investment-contract assets. For a token that spent years litigating its own security status, that boundary is pivotal: a clearer statutory line could remove the definitional overhang that has shadowed XRP throughout its drawn-out regulatory battles.

Ripple executives invoked the November 2022 collapse of FTX as a cautionary example of what unregulated gaps can produce. Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty warned that a no vote would preserve the same uncertain conditions bad actors can exploit, pointing to the misuse of customer funds and the exchange's entanglement with affiliate Alameda Research that shattered market confidence. The argument reframes the bill as consumer-safety legislation rather than an industry giveaway. With sentiment sitting deep in bear-market territory, proponents say a defined rulebook — from failures like algorithmic-stablecoin implosions to exchange collapses — is what would restore trust.

On COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine, XRP trades near $1.1065, holding just above a strong support at $1.0918 that our model rates 84/100, driven by the confluence of the S2 pivot, the Ichimoku Tenkan and Kijun lines, and a high-volume node. Immediate resistance sits at $1.1137 (68/100, on Fibo 0.214 and the EMA 20), with the heavier $1.2071 barrier scored 75/100 on a Flip S→R and volume POC. Derivatives lean crowded: a 3.38 long/short ratio (77.2% long) and $712 million open interest against a near-flat 0.0006% funding rate signal stretched bullish positioning. With RSI at 47 and Fear & Greed at 25 (Extreme Fear), a daily close below $1.0918 would invalidate the bullish case and expose $1.0259.