XRP Long-Term Holder Buying Falls 11% to 213.6M Tokens

XRP News

XRP’s steadiest holders are stepping back even as the token grinds higher. On-chain data shows the HODLer Net Position Change, a metric that tracks the net supply held by long-term investors, fell roughly 11% to 213.6 million XRP on July 1, down from about 239.3 million a day earlier. The pullback landed while XRP, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market value, rose about 2% to trade near $1.05 on July 2. In practice, conviction buyers slowed their accumulation into the bounce rather than chasing it — a divergence that often precedes a stall when the most patient wallets stop adding to positions.

A second thread in the data cuts the other way. The XRP Ledger recorded 4,941 new wallet creations in a single day, its strongest daily growth in more than three months, pointing to renewed network participation. On-chain positioning data also showed the all-exchange whale-versus-retail spread at 50.9%, with Binance’s measure at 44.6% — a sign that larger holders are accumulating more aggressively than cautious retail traders. That split between deep-pocketed buyers and hesitant retail is a familiar early-cycle pattern for the XRP altcoin, and it suggests institutions are positioning ahead of a crowd that has yet to fully re-engage with the market.

Momentum, however, refuses to confirm the move. The Relative Strength Index, a gauge that measures the speed of recent price changes, sits near 37.97 — well below the neutral 50 line and closer to territory associated with a bear market than a durable rally. More concerning, price has been printing lower highs while RSI prints higher highs, a developing hidden bearish divergence that frequently signals a downtrend is about to resume. The setup is not yet confirmed: it completes only if XRP fails to reclaim its recent swing high around $1.069 and the next daily candle closes lower.

Institutional demand is offering a counterweight through regulated products. XRP spot exchange-traded funds pulled in more than $62 million in net inflows during June, lifting cumulative net flows to roughly $1.48 billion since launch. On June 29 alone, the funds added $15.34 million, with Bitwise’s product accounting for $11.94 million of that total. Steady ETF accumulation gives XRP a structural bid that did not exist in prior cycles, channeling traditional capital into the asset without direct exchange exposure. For a token that spent years fighting regulatory headwinds, sustained inflows into a compliant wrapper mark a notable shift in how larger allocators are gaining access.

The character of the rally raises further questions. The roughly 2% gain came on lighter trading volume than the sessions preceding it since June 26, meaning fewer buyers stood behind each push higher and leaving a thin base under the advance. When price climbs while participation fades, rebounds tend to lose steam, and the double-digit slowdown in long-term holder buying reinforces the concern that the move lacks conviction. Traders and automated strategies alike are watching whether spot demand can broaden; without it, the recovery risks becoming another range-bound bounce rather than the start of a sustained trend.

The intraday tape did show a burst of genuine buying. XRP pushed through the $1.0560 level at 03:27 UTC on volume of 5.34 million tokens — a 1,433% jump from the preceding hourly average — before reaching a session high near $1.0665. The token has continued to build higher lows above the $1.00 support zone, with $1.0318 and $1.0410 anchoring the latest recovery attempt. Still, the structure needs follow-through: a sustained move above $1.10 is widely viewed as the threshold that would turn support defense into a convincing recovery rather than another attempt that stalls short of its previous all-time high.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine rates the $1.0721 resistance at 81/100, its strongest overhead barrier, driven by the confluence of the Fibonacci 0.114 retracement, the R1 pivot and the prior day’s high; the next hurdle at $1.2149 scores 68/100 on the SMA 50 and volume point of control. Support at $1.0086 holds a 75/100 rating from the Donchian lower band and swing low. Derivatives data shows a positive 0.0019% funding rate, $633 million in open interest and a long/short account ratio of 3.14 — crowded long positioning that risks a squeeze against the Bitcoin-led tape. With the Fear & Greed Index at 19 (Extreme Fear), a daily close back above $1.0721 favors bulls; losing $1.0086 invalidates the thesis.