XRP Slips Near $1.05 as Weekly RSI Turns Oversold for First Time Since 2022

XRP News

XRP (XRP) is sliding toward its last major support near $1.04 as the token's weekly Relative Strength Index drops into oversold territory not seen since 2022. The fourth-largest altcoin by market value changes hands around $1.04, down roughly 3.7% over the past 24 hours and more than 11% across the week. Technical and on-chain readings now point the same way, and the slide has unwound much of XRP's earlier-cycle gains. With sentiment locked in bear-market conditions, buyers have shown little appetite to defend the level, leaving the chart exposed to a deeper retracement should support give way.

On-chain data shows large-holder conviction fading fast. The count of whale transactions above $100,000 has thinned toward the low end of its range, sitting near 90 versus an early-February peak around 898. Fewer outsized transfers point to weak resolve among major holders, and recent flow data shows top whales trimming positions rather than buying the dip. That behavior typically accompanies distribution, not accumulation. For a token that has historically leaned on whale clusters to mark local bottoms, the retreat removes a familiar prop and raises the risk that any bounce lacks the heavyweight backing needed to stick.

Attention metrics tell a similar story. XRP's social dominance — the share of crypto conversation the token commands — sits near 0.259%, well below its spring peaks in late March and mid-May. Those earlier chatter spikes failed to halt the decline; interest flared as the price fell, then faded just as quickly. The pattern signals little fresh demand from retail holders and underscores how thin engagement has become at lower prices. When both price and social dominance fall together, it often reflects capitulation rather than the renewed buying that typically precedes a durable recovery.

The weekly chart frames a deteriorating structure. XRP trades below a descending resistance line drawn from its $3.66 cycle top, a trendline that has rejected price four separate times. The token has now fallen more than 50% from its July 2025 record high, carving a steady sequence of lower highs and lower lows. That all-time high near $3.66 looks increasingly distant as each rally attempt stalls earlier than the last. Declining weekly volume reinforces the read, suggesting buyers lack the conviction to absorb supply and reverse the months-long downtrend.

A breakdown from a symmetrical triangle has sharpened the bearish case. The pattern's measured move projects a target near $0.73, a level that would mark a steep extension of the current decline. Symmetrical triangles compress price into a tightening range before a decisive break, and XRP resolved its range to the downside. Below the immediate support shelf, the chart shows little structural footing before that $0.73 zone. A confirmed weekly close beneath the current floor would validate the projection and open the door to the kind of flush that has already gripped weaker altcoin names this cycle.

The more immediate battleground is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement around $1.17, a level XRP is now losing. That zone had acted as the final notable support before empty air on the chart, and slipping beneath it strips away one of the last technical guardrails. Weekly volume continues to drift lower even as price breaks key levels, a divergence that argues against a sustained rebound. Traders leaning on an AI trading bot or systematic strategy will note that momentum, structure, and participation are all aligned to the downside, leaving little contrarian signal for an immediate reversal.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $1.0122 support at 76/100, its strongest reading on the board, driven by the confluence of a Fibonacci 0.000 anchor, the Donchian lower band and a Stochastic oversold trigger. Overhead, the engine scores the $1.0735 resistance at 70/100 on Fibo 0.114 and the previous daily close. Derivatives lean cautious: aggregate funding sits at -0.0072%, open interest near $644 million, and a long/short account ratio of 2.88 shows 74.2% of accounts positioned long — crowded longs into a downtrend. With RSI at 30.53, a bearish MACD and a Fear & Greed reading of 12 (Extreme Fear), our thesis stays bearish unless price reclaims $1.0735; a clean loss of $1.0122 invalidates any base.