XRP Slips to $1 Support for Third Time in Two Weeks

XRP News

XRP, the third-largest altcoin by market value, has fallen back to the psychologically critical $1 support after dropping roughly 6% on the weekly chart. This marks the third time in two weeks that XRP has tested the same level, a repetition that traders read as structurally bearish. Each failed attempt to push price decisively away from $1 strengthens the case that buyers are exhausting demand. Our reading of the price action suggests that if selling pressure intensifies, the round-number floor could crack and flip into resistance, opening a slide toward the next major support near 80 cents.

Compounding the weak structure, XRP’s weekly MACD is on the verge of a bearish crossover — a momentum signal where the shorter moving average crosses below the longer one. If confirmed on the weekly close, it would be the first such cross of 2026, a development that historically precedes extended downside rather than recovery. The pattern of lower highs and lower lows already defines a bear market structure on the higher timeframes. Until that momentum picture resets, the burden of proof sits firmly with buyers, and any bounce risks being sold into rather than chased.

A relative-value divergence is also drawing attention as XRP holds the $1.04–$1.06 zone with negligible 24-hour movement while Stellar (XLM) shows sharper energy near $0.18, up 3.91% on the day. The XRPXLM cross rate sits at 7.59, up 2.15%, indicating XRP still commands relative dominance in the pair even as XLM posts stronger short-term momentum. Both assets are attempting breakouts from multi-week consolidation, yet neither has confirmed continuation. For relative-value traders weighing cross-border payment plays, the question is whether XRP’s steadier base or XLM’s faster percentage move offers the cleaner setup into the coming sessions.

On the upside, the immediate hurdle for XRP is a dense resistance band stretching from $1.30 to $1.37. A confirmed reclaim of $1.10 followed by a volume-backed break above that band would put $1.45 and then $1.60 back on the table, according to the bull scenario laid out across recent technical models. That path assumes the $1.30–$1.37 zone is cleared without a sharp rejection — a meaningful condition given how many prior rallies have stalled there. For longer-horizon holders eyeing a return toward the prior all-time high, this band is the first structural gate that must give way.

Momentum indicators reinforce the cautious tone. The 3-day RSI sits close to 30, a reading that signals persistent bearish control rather than a clean oversold bounce; as long as RSI holds under 50, sellers retain the upper hand. Traders running an AI trading bot or systematic momentum strategy would see no trend-following entry trigger under current conditions. The combination of a sub-30 RSI, lower lows, and a looming MACD cross argues for waiting on confirmation of a bottom before committing capital, rather than attempting to catch a falling knife at the $1 handle.

The invalidation level for the bullish thesis is clearly defined: a decisive daily close below $1.04 with follow-through selling would re-open the sub-$1.00 range and expose the 80-cent area. The base case is more neutral — price grinds between roughly $1.04 and $1.20 for another week, building a tighter consolidation before any directional resolution. XLM’s parallel setup looks cleaner in percentage terms, with first resistance at $0.22–$0.23 and a 22–28% move available if that breaks, while its cross-border utility narrative could attract institutional flow whenever broader risk appetite returns to the market.

COINOTAG’s proprietary 42-indicator composite scoring engine rates the $1.0029 support at 75/100 — the strongest level on the board — driven by the confluence of the lower Bollinger Band and Donchian Lower channel, with secondary support at $1.0335 scoring 62/100 off the S1 pivot and prior-day low. Overhead, the $1.0535 resistance scores 69/100 (R1 pivot, Fibo 0.114) ahead of $1.0877 at 68/100 (Ichimoku Tenkan, ATR Upper). Our RSI reads 32.38 with a bearish MACD in a confirmed downtrend. Derivatives data shows funding at -0.0028% and a 3.05 long/short ratio — 75.3% of accounts long — a crowded posture vulnerable to a flush, amplified by a Fear & Greed Index of 15 (Extreme Fear). A daily close below $1.0029 invalidates the bullish case; a reclaim of $1.0535 reopens the path higher.