Bitcoin (BTC) Hash Rate Falls 19% in Record Nine-Month Slide

Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded its longest modern hash-rate drawdown, with the 30-day mean sliding from 1,108 EH/s in November 2025 to 898 EH/s, a 19% contraction over roughly nine months. Network data reviewed by COINOTAG as of Aug. 5 show the decline is not the deepest on record, but it is the most persistent. The May-to-July 2021 China mining ban cut hash rate by 42%, from 165 EH/s to 95 EH/s, yet capacity returned within six months as machines relocated. The April-to-July 2024 drop after the halving was shallower at 8%, falling from 626 EH/s to 578 EH/s, and new rigs replaced lost output within a quarter. The current phase has removed about 210 EH/s, exceeding the entire network’s compute capacity in early 2021, and the 30-day average has not yet formed a base heading into August. Margin pressure is already visible in company filings: Poolin, once the largest mining pool, sought Chapter 11 protection in late July. Network difficulty, the protocol’s automatic measure of how hard it is to find a block, has fallen 19.9% from its November 2025 peak near 156 trillion to 126.23 trillion. Mining-data indicators place the current level 1.1% below its year-ago reading, the first negative annual print since August 2021, when the China ban pushed the metric to minus 21.2%. Only two annual negative zones have appeared in Bitcoin’s history, and both coincided with large-scale miner withdrawals. This time, however, the withdrawal is linked to power capacity being redirected rather than simply switched off. The network’s ASIC mining base is therefore facing a test that differs from prior corrections because the lost capacity is tied to long-dated alternative uses rather than temporary unprofitability. Bitcoin difficulty has also turned negative on a year-over-year basis, reinforcing the signal that miners are leaving faster than replacement capacity is arriving.

The hash-rate contraction is being driven by an unprecedented capital migration toward artificial-intelligence infrastructure. Public mining companies now hold more than $70 billion in AI-related contracts, and the power capacity moved into these agreements may not return to Bitcoin production. Corporate disclosures show Hut 8 with a $26.6 billion contracted AI portfolio, Core Scientific leasing about 1.1 gigawatts to CoreWeave, and TeraWulf signing a 20-year lease with Anthropic valued at roughly $19 billion. IREN and Cipher Mining have added agreements with Microsoft and AWS worth $9.7 billion and $5.5 billion, respectively. These arrangements convert former ASIC mining sites into data-center leases lasting 12 to 20 years, while AI hosting can pay 3 to 25 times more per megawatt than Bitcoin mining. The economic pressure is compounded by weak market conditions. BTC traded near $64,078, up 0.9% over 24 hours but still about 49% below its October 2025 peak, a bear market backdrop that has squeezed miner margins. Hashprice, the expected daily revenue per unit of computing power, sits near $30 to $32 per petahash per day, below breakeven for older fleets, with industry estimates suggesting 15% to 20% of machines operate at a loss. Public miners have already sold more than 32,000 BTC in the first quarter to finance the transition. One widely cited estimate puts the current production cost near $54,939 per BTC at $0.06 per kilowatt-hour, while historical cost estimates show the asset has spent only 10 days below production cost since 2017. Reaction among industry figures is split. Coinbase chief Brian Armstrong has dismissed concern that the energy shift will damage BTC price, while investor Chamath Palihapitiya describes the change as structural for miners. Bitwise Europe research head André Dragosch has warned that miners may regret this shift if profitability recovers. The result is a cyclical trigger meeting a structural exit: falling prices initiated the slide, but long-term AI contracts are preventing the type of hash-rate rebound seen after previous downturns.

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes published an essay arguing that trillions in AI capital expenditure function more like real-estate development than high-growth technology investment, and that a resulting bubble burst would resemble the 2008 credit crisis rather than the 2000 dot-com collapse. He contends central banks would respond with aggressive monetary expansion, ultimately reigniting a Bitcoin bull market. Hayes acknowledged BTC may range between $60,000 and $70,000 with downside potential to $50,000, and disclosed his family office Maelstrom has been accumulating. The thesis finds partial support in fresh corporate data: SpaceX reported $15.83 billion in second-quarter capital expenditure directed at AI compute infrastructure, while its 18,712 BTC holdings saw book value decline roughly 33% to $1.098 billion.

(as of 03:26 UTC) COINOTAG's composite engine places Bitcoin in sideways consolidation at $64,513.83, with the nearest strong support at $63,942.66 (69/100, anchored by SMA 50, Fibonacci 0.214, and ATR Lower) and the dominant resistance at $67,334.82 (68/100, defined by Ichimoku Senkou B and cloud top). Derivatives show mild long bias—funding at 0.0021%, open interest near $13.0B, long-to-short ratio 1.23—yet the Fear & Greed Index reads 25 (Extreme Fear). The key question is whether price holds the $63,942.66 shelf or breaks toward the $64,653.75 flip level before attempting the Ichimoku ceiling.