CryptoQuant's Darkfost: Bitcoin (BTC) Long-Term Holder Selling Stayed Quiet Through 2026

Coin Days Destroyed Signal Calm

Bitcoin (BTC)'s long-term holders have spent 2026 largely resisting the urge to sell, according to on-chain analysis published by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost on Sept. 13. Working from the CDD 30DMA Heatmap — a visualization of the 30-day moving average of Coin Days Destroyed — Darkfost flagged the pattern in a post shared on X, noting that while the current cycle ranks among the most active periods for long-term holder (LTH) mobility in Bitcoin's history, activity across 2026 specifically has remained comparatively subdued.

a post shared on Xhttps://x.com/Darkfost_Coc/status/2099036297423650876

Coin Days Destroyed measures how many long-idle coins actually move, multiplying the amount of BTC transacted by the time it sat untouched. When coins dormant for months or years finally shift, the metric spikes — which is why desks track it as a proxy for whether the long-term HODL base is distributing. The data shows the latest rally has lifted short-term profit-taking, but it has not translated into a broad LTH sell-off.

Nuance matters here. A rise in CDD does not automatically mean coins hit an order book: internal wallet reorganizations, exchange-internal transfers and whale-scale relocations can all inflate the figure without a single sale taking place. Each spike therefore needs to be decomposed before it is read as sell-side pressure.

Darkfost ties the elevated mobility of this cycle to deepening liquidity — spot Bitcoin ETF flows and corporates building a strategic Bitcoin reserve have thickened order books, letting large holders reposition size with less slippage. The decisive question, the analysis concludes, is whether the uptick in movement becomes sustained: a sharp CDD rise paired with exchange inflows would be the combination that genuinely strengthens selling pressure. For now, the record points to a holder base mostly waiting for higher price levels — a stance consistent with the resilience we track across our Bitcoin coverage.

Jiang Zhuoer Maps Two Scenarios

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the B.TOP mining pool, cautioned that an “important price move” may be close at hand now that heavily leveraged positions have been flushed. In his base case, Bitcoin first sweeps the dense liquidation cluster sitting above $76,000, while Ethereum in parallel tests its own liquidation zone near $2,665 — liquidation clusters act like order-book magnets because forced closes of shorts and longs concentrate at those levels, so a sweep there would take out a large share of the positions parked at the upper band.

From there, Zhuoer lays out two paths. If Bitcoin clears the zone and recovers without slipping back below $75,000, the rally could extend to $80,000 and even test the strong $83,000–$84,000 resistance band — but he expects a larger-scale correction to follow such a push. If instead the $75,000 support gives way, the pullback would deepen against the advance that began at $64,000, with a retracement into the $70,000–$72,000 region before the bull market's next leg, in his view.

Direction, he argues, will hinge on near-term catalysts: the legislative bill vote expected next week and forthcoming Federal Reserve developments. The macro leg is already priced to be binary — markets currently assign 87% Fed hike odds for September FOMC — so the week's policy window could determine which of the two paths resolves.

Reflecting that uncertainty, Zhuoer disclosed a deliberately hedged book: a full-size short position on Bitcoin carried alongside a full-size spot Ethereum position, a structure built to stay balanced regardless of which scenario plays out first. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Gate.

Aged Supply vs Leveraged Tape

Read together, the two assessments describe a market where aged supply is holding fire while leveraged positioning sets the tape. The load-bearing record here is the on-chain CDD series itself — a primary on-chain measure of how much long-dormant Bitcoin actually moves, independent of sentiment. Our reading at COINOTAG: as long as the 30-day average stays flat, dips lack distribution fuel, and liquidation sweeps like the $76,000 zone Zhuoer maps tend to resolve quickly. The combination to watch is a decisive CDD rise arriving alongside exchange inflows; absent that confirmation, CryptoQuant's earlier framing — that Bitcoin needs an $81,700 reclaim to confirm a new bull run — remains the level to beat.