CryptoQuant Says Bitcoin (BTC) Needs an $81,700 Reclaim to Confirm New Bull Run

CryptoQuant Maps the Path to $81,700

Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied roughly 24% over the past two weeks, yet the move keeps stalling near $77,000 — and on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant argues that only a decisive reclaim of about $81,700 would confirm a genuinely new bull market. Research head Julio Moreno identifies the nearest and heaviest obstacle as a supply wall between $77,100 and $80,200, a band where long-term holders sold as many as roughly 539,000 BTC within 30-day windows this year. That overhang explains why recent pushes through $80,000 — including a touch near $82,000 — failed to extend. Cycle-valuation frameworks such as the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart frame the current zone as mid-range rather than euphoric, but CryptoQuant's on-chain model is stricter: under its historical pattern, bull cycles are reconfirmed only once price closes decisively above the 365-day moving average, currently near $81,700; below that line, range-bound churn remains the base case. Resistance stacks quickly beyond it — about $83,600 at the 3x Metcalfe valuation band, then roughly $88,700 at the upper edge of the active trader realized-price model, where profit-taking historically intensifies. The firm's bullish roadmap therefore runs $77,100–$80,200, then $81,700, then $83,600, then $88,700, in sequence. On the downside, Moreno still reads the structure as constructive rather than bearish: the first major support sits at the 200-day moving average near $70,000, with a deeper cost-basis shelf at $62,000–$65,000, where long-term holders accumulated roughly 476,000 BTC this year — a cohort showing a textbook HODL accumulation pattern. Institutional demand offered no cover for the breakout attempt. US spot Bitcoin ETF products recorded net outflows on three straight sessions from Sept 8–10 — roughly $46.6 million, $120.2 million and $282.7 million, about $450 million combined, with ARK 21Shares' ARKB alone shedding $164.3 million on Sept 10. Including Sept 11, the week's four trading days saw about $463 million leave the funds, ending three consecutive weeks of net inflows. Live Bitcoin price data shows BTC still pinned near $77,000 — confronting the supply zone precisely as the marginal ETF bid that once absorbed selling has faded.

Volume Collapses as Sentiment Cools

The tape on Sept 13 confirmed the indecision. BTC slipped 0.08% to about $77,183 in the Asian session, and 24-hour volume collapsed 63.95% to roughly $12.87 billion — a participation dry-up on both sides of the book. The five-session run tells the same story: -0.19% on Sept 9, -2.22% on Sept 10, a +0.86% bounce on Sept 11, +0.07% on Sept 12 and -0.11% on Sept 13. A sharp drawdown was followed by a listless recovery that never regained upward momentum. On-chain flows leaned supply-side: exchange holdings rose 3,430 BTC to about 2.49 million BTC, with a net inflow of 3,429 BTC against just 105 BTC the prior day — sellable inventory creeping higher. Network activity faded in parallel: active wallets dropped 16.4% to 570,535 from 682,493 a day earlier, and Google Trends interest slipped to 28 from 34 — retail attention cooling with the price. As our Bitcoin coverage has tracked through the rebound, sentiment indicators are easing from the top: the Fear & Greed Index held at 61 (Greed), down from 63 a day earlier and 73 last week, while SOPR at 1.0050 shows profit-taking modestly dominant. Dominance eased 0.04 point to 58.68%, hinting at mild altcoin rotation rather than outright risk-off. Traditional markets were mildly supportive — the S&P 500 rose while gold held flat — but macro tail risks linger: housing data showing US sellers outnumber buyers by 57.9% has been flagged as a macro test for Bitcoin, and a bitbank analyst separately flags FOMC downside risk. Momentum is split across timeframes: the daily MACD turned positive near 1,611, a short-term recovery signal, while the weekly MACD stayed negative around -1,014. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on Gate.

$77,125 Shelf vs. the $81,700 Test

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine pins the standoff precisely: with spot at $77,236, price is compressed between a $77,125 support rated 78/100 (STRONG) — driven by the confluence of S2, EMA 20, Fibonacci 0.214 and a stochastic oversold signal — and a $77,281 resistance rated 67/100 on Pivot Point, MACD Cross and Ichimoku Tenkan sources. Higher up, the $83,238 level scores 67/100 (Donchian Upper, Fibo 0.000, Swing High), aligning with CryptoQuant's valuation band. Derivatives lean long but not euphoric: funding +0.0060%, open interest $14.86 billion, long/short ratio 1.76 (63.7% long), with Fear & Greed at 61 (Greed). RSI at 54.88 with a bearish MACD signal inside a broader uptrend reads as consolidation, not reversal. Bullish path: hold $77,125, break $77,281 and target $83,238; a daily close below $77,125 — with the $73,674 level (73/100) next — invalidates the constructive read. Our Bitcoin (BTC) guide covers the fundamentals.