Bitcoin (BTC) Tops $79K as Trump Signals End to Iran War

Trump's Iran Opening

Bitcoin (BTC) jumped about 3% on Monday, climbing from a daily low of $76,388 to an intraday high of $79,325 before holding near $79,100, after US President Donald Trump suggested the war with Iran could be nearing an end. In a Truth Social post, Trump wrote that Iran “wants to make a deal” and did so “quickly and badly,” adding that he would decide whether the United States engages with Tehran while noting Washington was open to the idea. A second post carried the line that moved energy markets: prices were coming down “sharply,” and oil “will drop like a rock” once the military conflict with Iran ends — an outcome he called not long off. Brent crude had risen more than 4% over the weekend before giving back part of that gain and trading near $106 per barrel, while US WTI stayed above $100. The diplomatic opening arrives against a widening conflict: Iran-aligned forces launched missiles and drones at a military airbase in Khamis Mushait, Saudi Arabia, and the kingdom's east-west pipeline — an export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz — was taken offline. Market participants warned that a prolonged closure could affect as much as 4% of global oil supply. Oman postponed a planned meeting of Iranian and Gulf officials on Hormuz operations, and Tehran published a list of 77 vessels it said had breached its operating rules in the strait. US equities stayed choppy: the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% after the open before recovering, with roughly $570 billion returning to equities within three hours after more than $600 billion had been erased earlier in the session. In crypto, the spot trading tape showed buyers willing to add risk on the prospect of diplomacy, even though Iranian state media rejected Trump's account and no confirmation has come from Tehran. The move also carried Bitcoin back above its 50-week exponential moving average at $77,430, a trend line the weekly candle had closed below on Sunday.

The $80,000 Liquidation Magnet

Derivatives positioning now frames the immediate upside target. A weekly CoinGlass liquidation heatmap shows the largest nearby concentration of leveraged positions at roughly $79,900-$80,000, with smaller pools between about $80,200 and $80,700 — a magnet should buyers extend the advance. Above that, the daily upper Bollinger Band sits near $81,035 against a midpoint of $78,521 and a lower band around $76,008; the move above the midpoint hands buyers control of the immediate range without confirming a breakout. Momentum is less clean: the daily MACD line stood near 1,579, below its signal line at roughly 2,211, with the histogram around minus 631 — a bearish crossover flagging fading momentum after August's sharp rally. On the downside, the $78,521 midpoint is first support, followed by a $77,500-$78,000 cluster band and the heaviest lower liquidity near $76,000. The same energy-cost anxiety has run through energy-linked equities, from the broad XLE ETF to grid names such as Bloom Energy and Fluence Energy, after record US retail diesel above $6.23 per gallon fed into transport and logistics pricing. That inflation channel is why the Federal Reserve looms largest. Markets now assign a 92.7% probability to a 25-basis-point hike at the Sept. 15-16 meeting, up from 59.4% a week ago, lifting the federal funds target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. Trading firm QCP Capital argued risk assets have already priced the quarter-point move, so policymakers' language — and the updated projections Chair Kevin Warsh will present Wednesday — matters more than the decision itself. Bitfinex analysts likewise flagged higher real Treasury yields as competition for non-yielding Bitcoin. Demand from US investors has held firm regardless: spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds took in $986.7 million in the week ending Sept. 4, after $924.5 million the prior week, bringing three straight positive weeks to roughly $3.8 billion. Readers tracking the market in real time can follow live spot and futures prices on MEXC.

Greedy Reading Into Wednesday

COINOTAG aggregate data shows risk appetite intact: the Fear & Greed Index reads 57/100 (Greed), our tracked-universe market cap sits near $2.35 trillion and Bitcoin holds 67.9% of it. The Iran-Fed squeeze now decides whether that greed survives Wednesday's decision.