BTC Stuck at 77K Resistance After Fed Decision

Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, after which Bitcoin traded around 76,000 dollars on Thursday; however, analysts did not shift the spotlight away from the Fed's internal dynamics. Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo emphasized that the least interesting aspect of the meeting was the steady interest rate decision, noting that the uncertainty between Jerome Powell's continuity at the Fed and Kevin Warsh's chairmanship expectations is preoccupying the markets. Markets are pricing in nearly 90% probability of rates staying steady until year-end, creating a negative dynamic for crypto and growth stocks. Bitcoin is trading at 77.152,55 dollars according to current data (+1,85% 24h change), for BTC detailed analysis RSI at 58,03 in sideways trend, Supertrend giving bearish signal.

Fed Internal Division Creates Pressure on BTC

Markets are pricing in the Fed's hawkish dissenters, with Jerome Powell's continuity and Kevin Warsh uncertainty dominating. Analysts note that the loss of inflation consensus is putting Bitcoin in wait-and-see mode between restrictive policy and energy risks. Bitcoin traded at 76,100 dollars shortly before the US markets opened; it had tested a daily high of 77,583 and low of 75,014 dollars. The price continues to be stuck below Glassnode's 78,000-79,000 dollar resistance zone, holding above EMA 20 ($75,688).

Glassnode Data: BTC Below Real Market Average

According to Glassnode's latest report, Bitcoin is trapped below the Real Market Average; support is concentrated in the 65,000-70,000 dollar range, spot selling pressure is easing, and institutional flows are balancing. Demand is not strong enough to support an upside breakout. STH cost basis mode risk indicator is signaling risk among short-term holders.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows and Institutional Dynamics

US spot Bitcoin ETFs broke a nine-day inflow streak at the start of the week and experienced net outflows for the third straight day on April 29; SoSoValue data shows total outflows of 138 million dollars, with Morgan Stanley's MSBT product recording the largest inflow of 10.8 million dollars. Alvin Kan (Bitget Wallet COO) interprets the failure to hold the 77,000-78,000 band as macro caution. Chen Dean, Matt Mena, Jake Kennis (Bitunix, 21Shares, Nansen) highlight the Fed division. Record net short positions in perpetual futures and declining volatility are keeping the market in a tight range.

Technical Levels Table: Supports and Resistances

Level	Price	Score	Distance	Sources
S1 (Strong Support)	$75,704	81/100 ⭐	-1.83%	S2, EMA 20, EMA 100, Fibo 0.500
S2 (Strong Support)	$71,926	76/100 ⭐	-6.73%	Fibo 0.382, Value Ar
R1 (Strong Resistance)	$79,392	90/100 ⭐	+2.95%	Fibo 0.618, ATR Upper, Donchian Upper
R2 (Strong Resistance)	$77,615	69/100 ⭐	+0.65%	R1

These levels are critical for BTC futures; R2 ($77.615) is just above, and a break could trigger a short squeeze.

Analyst Views and Short Squeeze Potential

Although institutional flows are stabilizing, full conviction has not formed; while selling pressure eases, fractured Fed and sticky macro risks are preventing a push to the ceiling. If demand revives, short squeezes could be triggered. RSI at 58 is neutral, but Supertrend is warning bearish. Related coins like DAR and ID are under similar pressure.

Cautious Strategy for BTC Investors

These signals indicate cautious consolidation in the crypto sector. Monitor S1 support; DAR analysis shows similar macro effects.