XRP Trades 70% Below Its $3.65 All-Time High One Year After the Peak

XRP News

Exactly one year ago today, XRP printed its record high at $3.65 — and the token now changes hands roughly 70% below that mark. The peak, set on 17 July 2025, ended a wait of more than seven years for a fresh all-time high, clearing the long-standing $3.40 ceiling from the 2018 cycle. Our reading of the 12-month chart is unambiguous: the breakout was rejected almost immediately. By early August the token had already lost the $3 handle, and while it retested $3.40 in the weeks that followed, momentum never returned. XRP has since traded near $1.08, a decline that erased the entire post-election advance.

The path down was not linear, and one session did most of the damage. During the October deleveraging event, XRP wicked to roughly $1.60 on major venues and as low as $1.10 on thinner order books, before snapping back to $2.60 within days. That rebound proved to be the last defence of the range. In the months that followed the token surrendered the $2 support permanently and began probing the psychological $1 line — a level it has held so far, but only just. What the sequence shows is a market where each recovery attempt has been sold into progressively lower, the textbook signature of a bear market rather than a single shock.

The forecasts that accompanied the peak now read as a case study in cycle-top sentiment. When XRP cleared $3.50, the conservative camp modelled $5 as the next objective while the majority projected low-double-digit prices. Neither materialised. The gap between those targets and the current $1.08 print is a reminder that vertical moves in a large-cap altcoin tend to mark distribution rather than the start of a new leg. The open question our desk keeps returning to is whether the last 12 months represent a Ripple-specific breakdown — ecosystem developments over the period included ETF launches and acquisitions — or an ordinary bear-market correction that simply began from an unusually stretched valuation.

Ripple's regulatory push is the live catalyst that could reset that debate. The company has continued lobbying U.S. senators to advance the Clarity Act, the market-structure bill that would divide oversight of digital assets between the SEC and the CFTC, while separate stablecoin legislation moves through Congress. XRP was trading near $1.09 as this engagement intensified. The commercial logic is direct: a statutory definition of when a token is a security removes the single largest overhang on Ripple's U.S. institutional business. Passage is not confirmed — no floor vote has been scheduled — and until a bill text clears committee, any price target built on the Clarity Act remains speculation rather than a disclosed event.

The broader tape is being dictated from outside the Ripple ecosystem. A widely followed technical trader — the same one who called XRP's roughly 700% advance across 2024 and 2025 — argues Bitcoin has reached an inflection point in its medium-term cycle, with $61,000 as the dividing line. Bitcoin is trading in the $62,500–$63,500 band after a local bounce off the prolonged June decline. His framing deliberately ignores intraday noise: only the monthly candle close matters. A July close above $61,000 would confirm the accumulation thesis; a close at or below it would recast this bounce as corrective and open a path toward the $45,000 strategic support zone.

That call matters for XRP because of how the correlation has historically worked. Large XRP moves have tended to occur when Bitcoin is either consolidating or trending decisively, and with BTC dominance at 69.6% as of 10:00 UTC, altcoin liquidity remains thin. In practice this means XRP holders are exposed to a level they do not control: if Bitcoin loses $61,000 on the monthly close, the $45,000 scenario would almost certainly drag XRP through its $1 floor. The inverse also holds. A confirmed monthly hold, combined with legislative progress in Washington, would give the token its first genuine two-sided catalyst since the peak.

COINOTAG's proprietary 42-indicator composite S/R scoring engine rates the $1.0971 resistance at 77/100 — the strongest level on the board — driven by the confluence of the BB Middle, SMA 20, an LVN and the Ichimoku Kijun, with XRP at $1.0866 as of 10:00 UTC, down 1.97% on the day. Immediate support at $1.0755 scores 64/100 on Fibo 0.114 and an S1 pivot, with deeper structural support at $1.0302 (62/100, Donchian and Keltner lower bands). Derivatives positioning is the warning: funding is a near-flat 0.0008% against $673 million in open interest, yet the long/short account ratio sits at 3.25 — 76.5% long. That crowding, with the Fear & Greed Index at 27, is fuel for a downside flush. RSI at 44.67 and a bullish MACD cross argue for a reclaim of $1.0971; a daily close below $1.0302 invalidates the thesis.